Earnings Verdict
Earnings 67 days out; no immediate catalyst. Elevated IV and bearish put flow dominate near-term.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Distance to earnings reduces event risk; focus on current put skew and max pain.
⚠️Unusual put activity: May 29 $700 put volume 4.2x OI.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$705.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,386 (13.3% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (67 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$61.70 (7.6%)
- 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$97.45 (12.0%)
- 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$121.50 (14.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Near-term IV ~55-62% annualized, backwardated? Expected moves: 7.6% (7d), 12% (14d), 14.9% (21d).
Crush estimate: No immediate crush; earnings far out.
Skew: Put skew high; put/call volume ratio 1.47, OI ratio 1.13. Unusual put activity at $700, $520, $720 strikes.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Not applicable; earnings distant.
Directional bias: Neutral; 100% beat rate (5/5) but not near-term.
Key Levels
1$705.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $751.03/$874.43
3Max pain pins: $738 (2026-05-22); $740 (2026-05-29); $725 (2026-06-05)
Flow Highlights
High vol/oi ratio on May 29 $700 put (4.2x) and Dec 18 $170 put (2.1x).
Bearish positioning or hedging, possibly skewing near-term IV.
Bulk of unusual prints are puts, concentrated at strikes below spot.
Indicates downside protection or bearish bets.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!High put volume may signal hedging ahead of potential downside.
!Gamma pinning near $740 could limit moves near that level.
!Spot 10.2% above MP suggests potential mean reversion.
What to Watch
?Put flow concentration at $700 and $720 strikes.
?Max pain levels shifting weekly.
?Any earnings-related news as July approaches.