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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $931.04EOD only
Max Pain
$450.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$76.30
8.2% from close
Price Gap
-481.04
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

STX earnings 46d away; 100% beat rate; heavy put buying and elevated IV skew indicate downside hedging.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.8% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual put activity and high IV skew signal bearish sentiment ahead of earnings.
🐻Unusual $800 put block (11.9x OI) signals institutional bearish positioning 11 days out.
⚠️Near-term $755 put at 134% IV suggests extreme short-term downside fear.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$860.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 798 (7.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (46 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$76.30 (8.2%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$117.65 (12.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$141.70 (15.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term skew elevated (134% IV on 6/12 $755 put); longer-dated (Dec) puts at 115% IV; event far out but put skew steep.

Crush estimate: Expected post-earnings IV crush ~30-50% given high implied moves (±15.2% for 20d).

Skew: Put skew extreme near-dated and far-dated; calls relatively lower IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided; expected moves for 6d/14d/20d are ±8.2%, ±12.6%, ±15.2%.

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate over 5 quarters).

Key Levels

1$860.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $854.74/$1007.34
3Max pain pins: $840 (2026-06-12); $450 (2026-06-18); $840 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Heavy unusual put activity: STX 2026-07-17 $800 Put (vol/OI 11.9) and STX 2026-12-18 $170 Put (vol/OI 2.1).

Large put buying suggests institutional hedging or bearish speculation, especially the 7/17 $800 put with massive volume.

Near-dated $755 put (6/12) trading at 134% IV, OI 107, vol 194.

Elevated IV and volume indicate strong demand for downside protection or a bearish bet on very short term.

Strategies

Long Straddle STX
Buy 2026-06-26 $940.00 put + buy $940.00 call
Debit: $107.73-$131.67
Max loss: $131.67
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 808.33 / 1071.67
Trigger: Exit before IV crush or on 50% of max loss. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
100% beat rate vs bearish hedging creates binary event; elevated skew boosts straddle value.
Outperforms: Buys both sides with $940 strike to capture large move; tail risks from put activity.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Heavy put activity signals downside hedging; risk of large moves below $800.
!Spot above max pain ($840) suggests potential pinning pressure.
!High IV on far-dated puts implies tail risk perceptions.
!Low gamma flip threshold ($860) increases spot sensitivity.

What to Watch

?Volume and OI changes on $800 put (7/17) and $170 put (12/18).
?IV crush magnitude if any pre-earnings volatility spike.
?Spot price relative to $840 support and $1100 call wall.
?Any new catalysts or guidance changes before 7/28.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.