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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1094.04EOD only
Max Pain
$960.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$100.25
9.2% from close
Price Gap
-134.04
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

STX earnings setup: high IV, 100% beat history, heavy call buying, but stock above max pain. Flow mixed.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Conflicting signals: net premium positive ($158M) vs mixed flow regime; elevated IV demands caution.
📈Large call buys at $1400 (6.1x OI) indicate bullish bets.
⚠️Put OI concentration 26.9% below spot suggests hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,627 (26.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$100.25 (9.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$67.25 (6.1%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$180.15 (16.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated: 4d ±9.2%, 10d ±6.1%, 18d ±16.5%. Term structure shows dip at 10d, surge at 18d.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush expected (spot ~$1094, short-dated IV >100%).

Skew: Put OI ratio 1.18 indicates put demand, but large call volume at $1400 skew upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; historical beat rate 100% (5/5).

Directional bias: Consistent beats suggest bullish drift, but past performance not predictive.

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1026.79/$1161.29
3Max pain pins: $960 (2026-06-26); $940 (2026-07-02); $930 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume: STX 2026-06-26 $1400 Call, vol/OI 6.1, IV 109%, last $1.5.

Aggressive upside bets; possible speculation or hedging.

Unusual put: STX 2026-06-26 $1000 Put, vol/OI 2.7, IV 103.7%, last $15.0.

Moderate put activity at strike below spot; protective positioning.

Strategies

IV Crush Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $1240.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $1250.00 call
Debit: $37.62-$45.98
Max loss: $45.98
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or at earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Exploits term structure and premium decay; defined risk suits mixed flow.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated call, buy later-dated call to profit from IV contraction.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Earnings Boom Strangle
Buy 2026-06-26 $1040.00 put + buy $1160.00 call
Debit: $47.56-$58.13
Max loss: $58.13
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 981.87 / 1218.13
Trigger: Set stop-loss at 50% premium; take profit at 2x.
Cheaper than straddle, unlimited upside, liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call to capture large moves.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Range-Bound Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $970.00/$830.00 put wing and $1370.00/$1530.00 call wing
Credit: $58.59-$71.61
Max loss: $88.39
Max gain: $71.61
BE: 898.39 / 1441.61
Trigger: Exit if breach of short strikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
High IV favors selling; but mixed flow and liquidity fail lower rank.
Outperforms: Sell wings to profit from range-bound post-crush.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High implied vol may erode premium quickly.
!Stock above max pain ($960) - potential downward pinning.
!Gamma flip at $800 exposes tail risk.
!Mixed flow regime adds uncertainty.

What to Watch

?Spot at $1150 resistance; EM guard rail $1161.
?Put OI concentration below spot for hedging signals.
?Unusual call activity continuation.
?Earnings date confirmation and analyst revisions.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.