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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1038.59EOD only
Max Pain
$1010.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$85.05
8.2% from close
Price Gap
-28.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

STX earnings in 34 days; 100% historical beat rate but near-term IV elevated. Flow shows put bias in OI but large call unusual.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Earnings far out; focus on near-term vol structure and gamma pinning at $1020/$980.
📈Unusual call at $1100 (2d expiry) suggests bullish speculation.
🛡️Deep OTM put bought ($200, 2027) signals long-term hedge.
⚠️IV elevated near-term; crush risk if no catalyst.
📊Historical beat rate 100% (5/5) supports bullish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,679 (19.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$69.60 (7.0%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$114.55 (11.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$76.90 (7.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term (2d) IV extremely high (~97%); longer-dated lower but elevated; significant contango.

Crush estimate: Post-event crush likely >50% on near-term strikes.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put OI ratio >1.2 indicates hedging demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 100% (5/5) indicates frequent positive surprises.

Directional bias: Bullish bias historically; 5/5 beats.

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $923.65/$1062.85; 1w $878.70/$1107.80
3Max pain pins: $1020 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 6/26 $1100 call: vol 287, OI 148, IV 97%, last $5.

Speculative bullish bets near-term; potential gamma squeeze if spot rallies.

Unusual 2027-01-15 $200 put: vol 216, OI 114, IV 107%, last $3.06.

Long-dated deep OTM put buying signals downside hedging or bearish view.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $920.00/$910.00 put wing and $1000.00/$1005.00 call wing
Credit: $4.19-$5.12
Max loss: $4.88
Max gain: $5.12
BE: 914.88 / 1005.12
Trigger: Close if stock nears wings; adjust to larger range if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Limits risk while profiting from IV crush and pinning.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings near support/resistance for defined-risk IV play.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $920.00 put + sell $1000.00 call
Credit: $182.12-$222.59
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $222.59
BE: 697.41 / 1222.59
Trigger: Set stop-losses; roll untested side if moves beyond 1 standard deviation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Higher premium capture but unlimited risk; best if range holds.
Outperforms: Sells naked put and call to harvest elevated IV.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 34 days out; current elevated IV may compress before event.
!Gamma pinning at $1020/$980 could cap moves.
!Large put OI wall below $860 offers support.

What to Watch

?Price action at max pain $1020 (6/26) and $980 (7/2).
?Unusual call activity at $1100 strike.
?IV crush dynamics as earnings approach.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.