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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1070.23EOD only
Max Pain
$915.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$112.50
10.5% from close
Price Gap
-155.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.15
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 2026-07-28. IV elevated, 100% beat rate, but spot 65.9% above MP. Unusual call/put activity.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 65.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: $1070 call and $950 put prints; $1150-$1400 call wall vs $700-$950 put floor.
🚨Unusual $1070 call vol/OI 4.9 suggests aggressive bullish positioning.
⚠️Put activity at $950/$830 with high IV signals hedging against decline.
📊100% beat rate but small sample (5 quarters).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,612 (25.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (40 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$112.50 (10.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$149.20 (13.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$186.20 (17.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV high; expected moves 10.5% (8d) to 17.4% (22d).

Crush estimate: Significant crush post-earnings; IV likely contracts sharply.

Skew: Put skew elevated; downside protection priced in.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Expected moves large; actual moves not given.

Directional bias: Bullish given 100% beat rate.

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $957.73/$1182.73
3Max pain pins: $645 (2026-06-18); $915 (2026-06-26); $910 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume: $1070 strike vol/OI 4.9, IV 26.3%.

Speculative bullish bet.

Unusual put activity: $950 and $830 puts vol/OI >2, IV 88-94%.

Hedging or bearish bets.

Strategies

Short Strangle STX
Sell 2026-06-26 $1025.00 put + sell $1110.00 call
Credit: $68.49-$83.71
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $83.71
BE: 941.29 / 1193.71
Trigger: Close before earnings to avoid gap risk; monitor IV and spot near max pain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Only eligible candidate; high IV and 100% beat rate favor range-bound.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put/call to capture elevated IV crush post-earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush: post-event IV likely collapses.
!Spot far above max pain; pinning risk at lower levels.
!Gamma flip ~$800; may accelerate downside.

What to Watch

?Max pain shifts: $645 (today) to $915 (Jun26).
?EM guardrails: $957.73-$1182.73.
?Unusual prints: $1070 call and $950 put.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.