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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1025.36EOD only
Max Pain
$1000.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$42.20
4.1% from close
Price Gap
-25.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
1.19
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
STX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as spot at $905 trades 10% below max pain $1005 with negative dealer gamma (-$2M) amplifying downside. High IV and VIX 18.4 support trending moves. Resistance at $900/$910 caps rallies; supports at $860/$775.5.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
Base 5, -1 for spot 10.5% below MP, +0.5 for VIX 18.4, net 4.5.
Supports: High IV, negative gamma, below max pain, broad market weakness.
Conflicts: Dealer long delta (+5.4M shares) may slow declines; mixed flow lacks clear put conviction.
📉Negative gamma: -$2M GEX amplifies selling pressure.
🎯Spot 10% below $1005 max pain, pin support absent.
📊VIX 18.4 elevated but not extreme; vol regime supports trend.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs typical; VIX 18.4 confirms elevated vol environment.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Strong negative gamma -$2M GEX; gamma flip near $800 (11% below spot).
Flow Regime
Mixed
Option flow mixed; put OI heavy below spot, net premium unclear.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot at $905 well below $1005 MP; no pin attraction, bearish drift.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and negative gamma favor sustained trending; below MP and broad market weakness extend horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$815.15$984.65
Test support at $860; resistance at $900/cap.
Next 2 weeks
$775.50$1024.30
Potential drop to $775.5 if $860 breaks; gamma flip near $800.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1005 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $945 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $815.15/$984.65
Support: $860.00 · $775.50
Resistance: $900.00 · $910.00 · $1024.30
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,682 (11.1% below spot)
Structural: Support: $860, $775.5; Resistance: $900, $910, $1024.3; Gamma flip: ~$800; Max pain pins: $1005 (6/26), $980 (7/2), $945 (7/10); 1w EM guardrails: $815.15-$984.65.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.0M

DEX: +5.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,682 (11.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma: -$2.0M; delta: +5.4M shares; put OI concentration (1,682, 11% below spot) sets gamma flip ~$800.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV likely rich vs VIX 18.4 due to downside risk premium.

Term structure: Not provided; typical contango in high vol regimes.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider put credit spreads if bearish conviction wanes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $678.7k put-heavy; P/C vol ratio 1.61, OI ratio 1.22—bearish flow.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 86.7 put 800 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 334 vs OI 182 (1.8x), high IV 86.7%. Likely bought puts for downside hedge; bearish tilt. 85.5 put 940 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 196 vs OI 111 (1.8x), high IV. Bearish flow; likely opening. 86.8 put 900 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol 206 vs OI 128 (1.6x), high IV. Bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Dealer long delta (+5.4M) could buffer sharp drops.
!Mixed flow may stall bearish momentum.
!Failure to break $860 support could trigger short squeeze to $900+.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $875.00/$775.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from continued downside with high IV. After earnings expiration captures move.
If spot bounces above $900 before expiration, spread loses value. Dealer long delta may buffer decline. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-31 $875.00 put
Why now: High IV and bearish flow (P/C vol 1.61) support long put for convexity. Post-earnings move potential.
If spot does not fall fast enough, theta decay erodes value. Support at $860 may slow decline. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-31 $1090.00/$1200.00 call spread
Why now: Call credit spread profits from failure to rally, with defined risk. After earnings expiration aligns with bearish follow-through.
If spot breaks above $910 strongly, spread may be breached. Dealer long delta could support rallies. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put for Convexity
Buy 2026-07-31 $875.00 put
Buy $875 put to profit from downside with defined risk.
Why this play: Highest convexity captures bearish move with high IV and bearish flow.
Debit: $79.92-$97.68
Max loss: $97.68
BE: $777.32
Mgmt: Set stop at $900; take profit at $860 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders seeking max upside on bearish thesis.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $875.00/$775.00 put spread
Buy $875/$775 put spread for downside with reduced premium.
Why this play: Defined risk debit spread with high IV; lower cost than long put.
Debit: $39.06-$47.74
Max loss: $47.74
BE: $827.26
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $900; target $775. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Moderate risk traders wanting defined risk.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $1090.00/$1200.00 call spread
Sell $1090/$1200 call spread for credit expecting capped upside.
Why this play: Profits from failure to rally; complements bearish thesis.
Credit: $15.16-$18.53
Max loss: $91.47
BE: $1108.53
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain; stop if spot exceeds $900. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Conservative traders seeking credit with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $860 support → THEN buy 2026-07-31 $875.00 put (stx_long_put) for target $775, stop at $900.
IFIF spot tests $900 resistance and fails to break above → THEN sell 2026-07-31 $1090/$1200 call credit spread (stx_call_credit_spread) for credit, stop at $900.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot rallies above $900 invalidation level → THEN close all bearish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; spot $905 below max pain $1005, negative dealer gamma (-$2M). Resistance $900/$910 caps; support $860/$775.5. High IV favors puts. Risk: dealer long delta buffers drops, mixed flow. 1w EM guardrails $815-$985. Target breakdown below $860.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.