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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $810.46EOD only

Max Pain

$727.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$30.40

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-82.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

—

No reports available

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with positive gamma support and dealer flow alignment, but upside capped near $850 resistance and pinning risk at $738 max pain. Multi-week thesis favors range-bound grind higher.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 positive gamma pinning; -1 spot 10.2% above MP; +1 VIX 17. Net = 8.

Supports: Dealer long gamma ($+4M GEX), positive flow, low VIX relative to stock vol, support at $737.5.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, resistance at $850/$910, gamma flip at $705.

🟢Dealer gamma positive and flowing with spot, providing tailwind.

🟡Resistance cluster $850-$910 caps upside near-term.

🔴Gamma flip at $705 poses tail risk if spot drops.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is high, reflecting event premium and sustained stock volatility above typical levels.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma positive ($+4M GEX) with pinning at $738 MP. Flip risk below $705.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow mixed but net premium aligns with dealer gamma positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 10.2% above max pain ($738), indicating bullish momentum but pinning drag.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiration dates (May 22, 29, June 5) and structural gamma support extend horizon beyond single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$751.03$874.43

Support $751, resistance $874; positive gamma supports drift upward.

Next 2 weeks

$715.28$910.18

Breakout above $910 bullish; failure below $715 bearish.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $738 (2026-05-22); $740 (2026-05-29); $725 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $751.03/$874.43

Support: $737.50 · $715.28

Resistance: $850.00 · $910.18

Gamma flip: ~$705.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,386 (13.3% below spot)

Structural: Support $737.5, $715.28; resistance $850, $910.18; max pain pins $738, $740, $725; gamma flip ~$705.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.0M

DEX: +6.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$705 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,386 (13.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Long gamma ($+4M GEX, +6M shares DEX) providing positive feedback. Flip risk at $705 from concentrated put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX (~17), indicating event-specific premium and potential contraction post-May 22 expiry.

Term structure: Contango with kinks near May 22 and May 29, reflecting event risk and roll costs.

Skew: Put skew steep on downside; selling puts at $715 support yields high premium with controlled risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $103M positive; put-call vol ratio 1.47, OI ratio 1.13; flow is bearish.

Directional prints: 75.2 put 700 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 562 vs OI 133 (4.2x) new put opening; buyer expects downside pays $3.22. 468.7 put 520 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 350 vs OI 106 (3.3x) extreme IV 468.7%; speculative OTM put. 73.7 put 720 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 245 vs OI 100 (2.5x) new put buying; premium $4.63 bearish.

Unusual: 102.4 put 170 OTM 2026-12-18 — Far OTM Dec 2026 put; vol 503 vs OI 234 (2.1x) tail-risk hedge. 77.8 put 650 OTM 2026-12-18 — Long-dated $650 put premium $107.35; vol 194 vs OI 104 (1.9x) institutional hedging. 207.4 put 615 OTM 2026-05-22 — Expiring today $615 put; vol 322 vs OI 212 (1.5x) extreme IV 207.4%.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversal to $705 gamma flip

!Failure to hold $751 support

!Event-driven vol spike

!Pinning at $738 limits upside

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $820.00/$880.00 call spread Why now: Positive gamma support and dealer flow alignment, capped upside.	Sell strike may be tested; max loss if spot drops. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $760.00/$700.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread below support, premium harvest with defined risk.	Spot reversal below short strike; max loss if spot drops. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-05 $930.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $820.00 call Why now: Term structure edge; sell rich near-term vol, own long-dated.	Early assignment or gap above short strike; directional loss if spot drops.

Top Plays

Call Diagonal Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $930.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $820.00 call

Sell short-term $930 call, buy long-term $820 call; profits from time decay and directional drift.

Why this play: Best fit for multi-week grind higher, leveraging term structure and positive gamma support.

Debit: $75.24-$91.96

Max loss: $91.96

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor spot near $930; adjust or close if exceeded.

Traders expecting gradual rise with capped upside.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $820.00/$880.00 call spread

Buy $820/$880 call spread; gains if spot rises to $880, max loss at $820.

Why this play: Capped upside aligns with $850 resistance; limited risk, bullish bias.

Debit: $20.61-$25.19

Max loss: $25.19

BE: $845.19

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $737.5 or near $850 resistance. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Traders seeking defined-risk upside exposure.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $760.00/$700.00 put spread

Sell $760/$700 put spread; profits if spot stays above $760.

Why this play: Premium harvest below support, but bearish flow adds risk; third best.

Credit: $19.80-$24.20

Max loss: $35.80

BE: $735.80

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $760 or invalidation at $737.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Traders with neutral-bullish view seeking income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSTX holds above $740 for 2 candles on 1H chart, confirming support at $737.5 → Enter call diagonal spread: sell Jun5 $930C, buy Jul17 $820C (strategy 3)

IFSTX pulls back to $715 support and shows reversal candlestick → Enter bull call spread: buy Jul17 $820/$880 call spread (strategy 1)

Exit Triggers

EXITSTX closes below $737.5 invalidation level → Exit all positions: bull call spread, put credit spread, call diagonal

Tactical Summary

Multi-week bullish bias with $850 cap. Favor call diagonal as top play; enter on hold above $740. Add bull call if dip to $715. Exit below $737.5. Gamma support at $705.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.