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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $993.25EOD only

Max Pain

$1020.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$69.60

7.0% from close

Price Gap

+26.75

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.20

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

STX shows near-term bullish bias with positive GEX and spot above $1000 max pain, but mixed flow and gamma flip risk at $800 temper confidence. Price likely ranges $983-$1067 in 2 days, with potential upside to $1167, but downside risk to $883 by week 2.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 VIX 19.

Supports: Positive GEX +$1.9M, spot above max pain $1000, resistance $1167, low VIX.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, gamma flip at $800, high IV, multiple pinning levels across expiries.

📈Spot above $1000 max pain, bullish bias next 2 days.

⚠️Gamma flip at $800 poses 22% downside risk if support breaks.

🔄Mixed options flow indicates indecision near highs.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is high relative to typical range, inflating option premiums.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX positive at +$1.9M with pinning near $1000, but gamma flip risk at $800.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium mixed; no strong directional conviction from flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain $1000, slight bullish tilt but mean reversion possible.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiry pinning levels ($1000, $980, $940) suggest a multi-week range-bound expectation.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$983.16$1067.56

Spot above max pain, potential drift to upper guardrail $1067.

Next 1 week

$974.66$1076.06

Range-bound between $974-$1076 with pinning at $1000 and $980.

Next 2 weeks

$883.01$1167.71

Wider range; downside to $883 if $1000 support breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1000 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $983.16/$1067.56; 1w $974.66/$1076.06

Support: $1000.00 · $883.01

Resistance: $1167.71

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,677 (22.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $1000 (Jun26), $980 (Jul2), $940 (Jul10). EM guardrails: 2d $983-$1067, 1w $974-$1076. Support: $1000, $883. Resistance: $1167. Gamma flip at $800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.9M

DEX: +5.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,677 (22.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.9M, DEX +5.3M shares. Gamma flip ~$800 based on put OI concentration 22% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX 18.9, implying rich premium for sellers.

Term structure: Term structure not provided; short-dated IV elevated due to pinning activity.

Skew: Skew not provided; potential opportunity in selling puts at gamma flip level $800.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive net premium $124.7M and put-heavy volume (P/C vol 1.46) indicate net put buying, bearish bias.

Directional prints: 100.6 put 270 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol 1089/OI 180: new put buying; seller collects premium. Bearish. 107.7 put 200 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol 1089/OI 204: opening put; bearish bias.

Unusual: 99 put 300 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol 1089/OI 356: active; likely bearish opening. Bearish. 88 put 935 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 196/OI 108: deep OTM weekly speculative put buying. Bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $800 could accelerate downside.

!Support at $1000 fails, leading to $883.

!Mixed flow lacks catalyst for sustained move.

!High IV may compress, reducing profitability.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $1040.00/$1200.00 call spread Why now: GEX positive, spot above max pain; flow mixed.	Capped upside. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $1140.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $1075.00 call Why now: Near-term IV rich; long vol into earnings.	If stock moves big, losses. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Conditional	Buy 2026-08-21 $1010.00 call Why now: Bullish bias from GEX and max pain.	Time decay, full loss.

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-08-21 $1010.00 call

Pure directional bullish play.

Why this play: Best liquidity and unlimited upside from bullish GEX/max pain.

Debit: $144.27-$176.33

Max loss: $176.33

BE: $1186.33

Mgmt: Set stop at $1000; take profits at $1167.

Aggressive bulls with higher risk tolerance.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $1040.00/$1200.00 call spread

Bullish with capped upside and downside.

Why this play: Limited risk with defined profit, but liquidity lower.

Debit: $48.10-$58.79

Max loss: $58.79

BE: $1098.79

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $1000. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.

Moderate bulls seeking risk control.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $1140.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $1075.00 call

Long vol via calendar spread.

Why this play: Exploits IV skew into earnings, but liquidity poor.

Debit: $49.41-$60.39

Max loss: $60.39

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short leg if challenged. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Volatility traders targeting earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSTX spot holds above $1000 support with bullish momentum → Buy STX 2026-08-21 $1010 long call at $144.27-$176.33

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSTX rallies to $1167 resistance → Take partial profits on long call

Exit Triggers

EXITSTX breaks below $1000 support → Exit long call position to limit loss

Tactical Summary

STX has near-term bullish bias with support at $1000 and resistance at $1167. Top play is a long call on strength above $1000, stop at $1000 break, profit target $1167. Mixed flow warrants caution; gamma flip risk at $800.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.