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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1066.07EOD only

Max Pain

$620.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$46.75

4.4% from close

Price Gap

-446.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.14

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 17, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

STX has bullish pinning support from dealer gamma, but high vol and spot far above max pain suggest caution. Confidence 7.5 reflects alignment.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

GEX/flow aligned (+2), pinning (+1), spot distance from MP (-1), VIX moderate (+0.5).

Supports: Positive gamma, flow alignment, pinning towards $620/$900.
Conflicts: High vol, spot above inventory, gamma flip at $800.

🟢Dealer gamma $+4.3M supports price near strikes.

🔴Spot 71.9% from MP indicates downside risk.

⚠️High IV implies event uncertainty.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High - IV elevated due to event uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning - large GEX positive ($+4.3M) pulls price.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed - net premium context unclear, P/C not given.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above - spot above key put-heavy strikes, flip at $800.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries (06/18, 06/26, 07/02) with supportive GEX across time.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$1019.32$1112.82

Positive gamma pinning near $1020-$1110.

Next 1 week

$944.92$1187.22

Wider range; support from gamma flip $800.

Next 2 weeks

$911.27$1220.87

Broad range; bias weakens beyond 1wk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $620 (2026-06-18); $900 (2026-06-26); $890 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $1019.32/$1112.82; 1w $944.92/$1187.22

Support: $911.27

Resistance: $1150.00 · $1220.87

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,544 (25.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain: $620 (06/18), $900 (06/26), $890 (07/02). EM guardrails: 2d $1019.32/$1112.82; 1w $944.92/$1187.22. Support $911.27, resistance $1150/$1220.87. Gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.3M

DEX: +7.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,544 (25.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$4.3M, dealer long 7.6M shares delta, flip ~$800.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX due to event premium.

Term structure: Backwardated near 06/18, contango thereafter.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider put spreads or call calendars.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $221M premium, calls vol heavy (P/C 0.93) vs puts OI heavy (1.14), short-term bullish.

Directional prints: 78.4 call 1200 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 16x; bought 2985 contracts, massive OTM call speculation. 92.9 put 330 OTM 2027-06-17 — Vol/OI 1.9x; ITM put with high IV, active positioning likely hedge.

Unusual: 78.4 call 1200 OTM 2026-06-18 — Extreme vol/OI 16x; large OTM call buying. 74.1 call 1100 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.7x; OTM call, elevated volume vs OI. 98 call 860 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 1.6x; deep OTM call, high IV, unusual premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $800

!Earnings surprise

!Market selloff

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $1050.00/$1440.00 call spread Why now: Confidence 7.5, bullish short-term, large OTM call speculation; spread caps risk.	Vol collapse or spot fall below support; spread limits loss. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $1370.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1480.00 call Why now: Front-month IV ~88%, back-month ~95%; profit if front vol decays faster.	Vol spike or large spot move; continuous VRP risk. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull call spread on STX

Buy 2026-08-21 $1050.00/$1440.00 call spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $1050/$1440 call spread ahead of earnings, leveraging bullish short-term bias with defined risk.

Why this play: Bullish pinning support and high confidence (7.5), large OTM call speculation; spread caps risk despite liquidity concerns.

Debit: $100.67-$123.04

Max loss: $123.04

BE: $1173.04

Mgmt: Exit if spot below $911.27 invalidation; monitor gamma flip near $800. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders with bullish view and limited risk appetite.

Call diagonal for vol decay

Sell 2026-07-17 $1370.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1480.00 call

Sell front-month $1370 call, buy back-month $1480 call to capture vol decay premium.

Why this play: Front-month IV (88%) higher than back-month (95%), opportunity to profit from vol term structure; lower conviction than bull spread.

Debit: $27.94-$34.16

Max loss: $34.16

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if back vol rises or front vol fails to decay; monitor position delta. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Volatility traders expecting front vol to decrease relative to back vol.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $911.27 support → Enter bull call spread: Buy 2026-08-21 $1050/$1440 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot reaches $1220.87 resistance → Take partial profits on bull call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $911.27 → Exit bull call spread and any bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with pinning support near $911.27; focus on bull call spread for defined risk, exit below support. Monitor gamma flip at $800 for tail risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.