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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1094.04EOD only

Max Pain

$960.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$100.25

9.2% from close

Price Gap

-134.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.18

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with caution. Positive dealer gamma (+$1.8M) and DEX (+5.3M shares) support pinning near $1010 max pain. High confidence despite elevated vol and mixed flow. Market selloff adds event risk, but structural support holds.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; +0.5 VIX 19.5. High confidence overall.

Supports: Positive GEX +$1.8M, DEX +5.3M, gamma pinning $1010, support at $1010 and $876.
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, spot above max pain, market selloff (QQQ -3.3%).

📈Dealer gamma positive; pinning likely near $1010.

🛡️Support at $1010 and $876; gamma flip far at $800.

⚠️High vol and market selloff create downside risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV relative to VIX 19.5; market selloff drives elevated premiums.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX +$1.8M; gamma pinning near $1010 max pain; flip at ~$800.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; moderate put/call activity, not directional.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain $1010 by ~$40; bias toward pinning into expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and gamma pinning near upcoming expiries (Jun 26, Jul 2, Jul 10); event risk from market selloff.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$953.54$1123.64

Range $954-$1124; pinning support at $1010.

Next 1 week

$915.29$1161.89

Range $915-$1162; volatility expansion possible.

Next 2 weeks

$876.29$1200.89

Range $876-$1201; break of support $876 signals downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1010 (2026-06-26); $975 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $953.54/$1123.64; 1w $915.29/$1161.89

Support: $1010.00 · $876.29

Resistance: $1050.00 · $1200.89

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,656 (23.0% below spot)

Structural: Support: $1010 (max pain), $876 (structural). Resistance: $1050, $1200. Gamma flip at $800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.8M

DEX: +5.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,656 (23.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.8M, DEX +5.3M shares; gamma positive at ~$1010. Flip around $800 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: STX IV elevated vs VIX 19.5; options rich, favoring sellers near support.

Term structure: Near-term expiries elevated, likely backwardation; event kinks near Jun 26, Jul 2.

Skew: Put skew steep; potential call spread if bullish but vol high.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive $147M net premium despite put-heavy volume (1.13x) and OI (1.18x), suggesting high-premium call activity.

Directional prints:

Unusual:

Risks & Catalysts

!Further market selloff breaking $1010 support.

!Gamma flip at $800 triggers dealer hedging.

!IV contraction after event reduces long premium.

!Flow reversal into puts increases downside pressure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $1055.00/$1280.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma and DEX support pinning near $1010 max pain. Bull call spread limits downside while benefiting from upside continuation after earnings.	Upside capped; if underlying drops, loss of net debit. Market selloff could break support. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $885.00/$785.00 put spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma near $1010 suggests support. Selling puts at or below max pain collects premium with manageable risk.	If underlying drops sharply below short strike, loss is defined but could be large. Market selloff may breach support. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $1280.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1070.00 call Why now: High implied volatility ahead of earnings; selling near-term call at higher strike funds long back-month call at lower strike, positioning for upside continuation.	If underlying rallies sharply above short strike, upside is capped; if drops, loss of net debit. Term structure shift can hurt. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Defensive Put Credit

Sell 2026-07-31 $885.00/$785.00 put spread

Sells puts below max pain to collect premium with support from positive dealer gamma.

Why this play: Highest probability given bullish bias and dealer support near $1010. Less capital at risk than call spreads, premium collection while waiting for earnings.

Credit: $25.16-$30.75

Max loss: $69.25

BE: $854.25

Mgmt: Close if STX breaks below $1010 support or gamma shifts. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Conservative bullish traders.

Upside Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $1055.00/$1280.00 call spread

Long call spread targeting upside continuation above max pain.

Why this play: Direct upside exposure with defined risk, benefits from earnings move. Downside limited to premium paid.

Debit: $65.07-$79.53

Max loss: $79.53

BE: $1134.53

Mgmt: Exit if STX drops below $1010 before expiration; take profit near $1280. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.

Moderate bullish traders.

Diagonal Call IV Play

Sell 2026-07-31 $1280.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1070.00 call

Uses time and volatility differences to fund long call exposure.

Why this play: Leverages high IV before earnings by selling front call and buying back-month at lower strike. Variable gain but lower cost than outright calls.

Debit: $87.34-$106.76

Max loss: $106.76

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust strike widths if IV expands significantly; close short leg before earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Experienced volatility traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf STX holds above $1010 support → Enter put credit spread: sell 2026-07-31 $885/$785 put spread near $28 midpoint

IFIf STX breaks above $1050 resistance → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-31 $1055/$1280 call spread near $72 midpoint

IFIf STX consolidates above $1050 after breakout → Enter diagonal call spread: buy 2026-07-31 $1055 call, sell weekly $1100 call near net debit $40

Exit Triggers

EXITIf STX closes below $1010 → Exit all positions; invalidates bullish thesis

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma support at $1010 max pain. Key support $1010, resistance $1050, gamma flip $800. Top plays: put credit spread (rank 1), bull call spread (rank 2), diagonal call (rank 3). Manage risk if $1010 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.