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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1070.23EOD only

Max Pain

$915.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$112.50

10.5% from close

Price Gap

-155.23

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

STX: muted conviction despite dealer gamma. Spot above MP, downside risk if de-hedging. Cautious bullish lean.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX alignment +1 gamma -1 MP distance +1 VIX = 8

Supports: Positive gamma, VIX 16, GEX aligned
Conflicts: Spot 65% above MP, mixed flow, resistance 1100

🎯Max pain $645, spot 65% above

📈Positive gamma $5.7M

⚠️Gamma flip $800 risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high vs typical; sector rally lifted vol

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $5.7M, pin near $645

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot +65.9% vs MP

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Range extends 2 weeks; gamma flip $800

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$957.73$1182.73

Bounded by guardrails 957/1182

Next 2 weeks

$921.03$1219.43

Gamma flip 800, resistance 1150

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $645 (2026-06-18); $915 (2026-06-26); $910 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $957.73/$1182.73

Support: $921.03

Resistance: $1100.00 · $1150.00 · $1219.43

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,612 (25.2% below spot)

Structural: Support 921, resistance 1100/1150/1219, gamma flip 800

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.7M

DEX: +7.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,612 (25.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: $+5.7M gamma, put OI at 800

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 16.4

Term structure: Neutral

Skew: Put skewed; credit spreads favorable

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish net premium $195.7M, call vol dominates (P/C vol 0.85) but put OI higher (1.15), mixed.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 26.3 call 1070 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.9x, IV 26.3%, OTM call, likely bought for upside; last $3.6. 88.7 put 950 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.2x, IV 88.7%, high IV put, possibly hedged sell; last $16. 94.5 put 830 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.1x, IV 94.5%, deep OTM put, possibly bought for protection; last $9.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip

!MP reversion

!Vol spike

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-08-21 $1440.00/$1480.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow but muted near-term bias; spread limits premium outlay and gamma risk.	Spot reversal below short strike leads to max loss if de-hedging intensifies. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-08-21 $1110.00/$1350.00 call spread Why now: Call debit spread profits from modest upside with limited capital at risk.	Underperformance if spot falls; time decay. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $900.00/$780.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread sells elevated volatility with capped downside.	Sharp sell-off breaks short put; gamma flip risk. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $1130.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1160.00 call Why now: Sell high IV near-term, buy longer-dated call to capture vol skew.	Spot moves sharply through short strike; vega mismatch. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $900.00/$780.00 put spread

Sell put spread to capture vol premium while limiting downside risk.

Why this play: Earns premium from elevated volatility with wide downside buffer, aligning with cautious bullish lean and neutral near-term bias.

Credit: $33.21-$40.59

Max loss: $79.41

BE: $859.41

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; close at 50% max gain or if spot nears short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking income with defined risk.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-02 $1130.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1160.00 call

Sell near-term call, buy longer-dated call to benefit from term structure.

Why this play: Exploit high near-term IV and longer-dated vol skew, suitable for muted directional conviction.

Debit: $73.98-$90.42

Max loss: $90.42

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust short leg if near-term volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Volatility arbitrage traders.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $1110.00/$1350.00 call spread

Buy call spread for modest upside with capped loss.

Why this play: Limited-risk bullish bet with lower strikes, matches cautious bullish forecast.

Debit: $62.51-$76.40

Max loss: $76.40

BE: $1186.40

Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below long strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.

Moderately bullish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSTX spot > 921.03 for 2 consecutive days and IV > 30% → Enter STX_put_credit_spread_01: sell 900/780 put spread at midpoint of 33.21-40.59 credit

IFSTX spot pulls back to 950-970 range with VIX > 25 → Enter STX_calendar_call_01: sell 1130C 7/2, buy 1160C 8/21 for net debit 73.98-90.42

Exit Triggers

EXITSTX spot breaks below 921.03 with volume → Close all positions; exit STX_put_credit_spread_01 and STX_calendar_call_01 at market

Tactical Summary

Neutral to slightly bearish near-term with cautious bullish lean. Key support 921, resistance 1100/1150. Prefer income via put credit spread (900/780) as top play; add call diagonal if pullback holds support. Risk: gamma flip below 800, vol spike. Exit if spot breaks 921.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.