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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1094.04EOD only

Max Pain

$960.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$100.25

9.2% from close

Price Gap

-134.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.18

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias amid high vol and positive dealer gamma, but spot far from max pain and resistance near $1150-$1161 cap upside near-term. Multi-week consolidation likely within $1026-$1161, with a bullish tilt supported by GEX and DEX.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 14% from MP; +1 VIX 17. Total 8.

Supports: GEX +3.1M positive, DEX +5.3M shares long, high vol regime, VIX 17.
Conflicts: Spot 14% above max pain $960, resistance $1150-$1161, gamma flip at $800.

🔼GEX positive ($3.1M) and DEX long ($5.3M) support bullish bias.

⚠️Spot 14% above max pain $960; resistance at $1150-$1161 may cap near-term.

📊High vol (IV > VIX) offers premium selling opportunities but increases risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime, IV elevated vs recent history, VIX at 17.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning gamma near $800 with positive GEX $3.1M; max pain clusters $960-$930.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, net premium neutral, no strong directional signal from put/call activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at 1114 is 14% above max pain $960, distant from key gamma levels.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Wide range ($1026-$1161) and structural gamma pinning suggest multi-week consolidation with bullish lean.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$1026.79$1161.29

Upside bias within $1026-$1161; resistance $1150-$1161, support $1026.

Next 2 weeks

$913.89$1274.19

Wider range $913-$1274; gamma flip at $800, support $913.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $960 (2026-06-26); $940 (2026-07-02); $930 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $1026.79/$1161.29

Support: $913.89

Resistance: $1150.00 · $1274.19

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,627 (26.9% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $960 (Jun26)/$940 (Jul2)/$930 (Jul10); EM guardrails 1w $1026/$1161; support $913, resistance $1150/$1274; gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.1M

DEX: +5.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,627 (26.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($3.1M GEX) and long shares (5.3M DEX); gamma flip near $800 suggests bullish positioning but with downside risk if broken.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (17), typical for high vol tech names; offers premium selling opportunity.

Term structure: Front-month elevated, contango moderate; no clear event kinks.

Skew: Skew flat with slight put premium; no actionable skew trade flagged.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive $158M, call vol < put vol (0.92) despite higher put OI (1.18), net bullish.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 109.3 call 1400 OTM 2026-06-26 — Volume 5,137 vs OI 836 (6.1x), IV 109%. Likely bought ($1.5). Preferred read: bullish speculation. 103.7 put 1000 OTM 2026-06-26 — Volume 324 vs OI 121 (2.7x), IV 104%. Likely bought ($15). Preferred read: bearish hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $1026 could trigger sell-off toward gamma flip at $800.

!Failure to break $1150 resistance may lead to consolidation or pullback.

!Positive gamma decays as expiry approaches, reducing pinning effect.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $1100.00/$1140.00 call spread Why now: Positive flow, dealer gamma, resistance near 1150, earnings catalyst 7/28	Spread loses value if spot stays below 1100; time decay negative Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $1100.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1100.00 call Why now: High IV near-term, term structure steep, earnings catalyst, bullish bias	Drop in spot hurts both legs; short call theta after expiry Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $1050.00/$1045.00 put spread Why now: Support 1026, positive dealer gamma, earnings upside bias	Break below 1045 causes max loss; limited upside Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $1100.00/$1140.00 call spread

Buy $1100-$1140 call spread to capture upside with defined risk.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and resistance near $1150, benefiting from positive dealer gamma and earnings catalyst.

Debit: $15.21-$18.59

Max loss: $18.59

BE: $1118.59

Mgmt: Take profit near $1150 or at 50% max gain. Stop if break below $1026. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking bullish directional exposure with limited risk ahead of earnings.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $1050.00/$1045.00 put spread

Sell $1050-$1045 put spread to collect premium with wide buffer.

Why this play: High probability bullish trade with support at $1026 and positive dealer gamma.

Credit: $2.39-$2.92

Max loss: $2.08

BE: $1047.08

Mgmt: Hold to expiration or close at 50% max gain. Invalidate below $1026. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders comfortable with moderate bullish outlook.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-24 $1100.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1100.00 call

Sell near-term $1100 call, buy later call to capture volatility decay and earnings drift.

Why this play: Benefits from steep term structure and high near-term IV, but less direct directional play.

Debit: $45.72-$55.88

Max loss: $55.88

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk near front expiry; adjust if stock approaches $1100. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Traders expecting consolidation with time decay and volatility contraction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSTX holds above $1026 (1-week EM) with RSI > 60 → Buy 2026-07-31 $1100/$1140 call spread

IFSTX consolidates above $1026 and IV declines → Sell 2026-07-31 $1050/$1045 put spread

IFSTX nears $1150 resistance with high IV, consolidation expected → Sell 2026-07-24 $1100 call / buy 2026-08-21 $1100 call

Exit Triggers

EXITSTX breaks below $913.89 (invalidation) → Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias multi-week. Support $1026, resistance $1150-$1161. Enter bull call spread on pullback; put credit spread if consolidation; call calendar near resistance. Invalidate below $913.89.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.