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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $931.04EOD only
Max Pain
$450.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$76.30
8.2% from close
Price Gap
-481.04
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
STX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with structural dealer support and gamma pinning near $840, but spot 10.8% above max pain poses pullback risk. Confidence high from aligned GEX/flow and low VIX amplification.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX pinning +1 VIX 18 -1 spot far from MP = 8
Supports: Dealer gamma positive (+$4.8M), spot above MP, low VIX, bullish flow context
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain (10.8%), mixed flow detail, resistance above $1000
🛡️Gamma flip at ~$860 (put OI concentration); spot at $864 holds support
⚖️Mixed flow but net premium positive; June 12 expiry pin at $840
📈2-week range $813-$1049; bias bullish but resistance near $1000

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to VIX (17.68), driven by event risk across multiple expiries (June 12, 18, 26).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with strong positive gamma near $840 from put OI. Gamma flip at ~$860, 0.5% below spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with net premium positive; put activity concentrated at $840, call activity sparse above $1000.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ($864) 10.8% above max pain ($840) for June 12 expiry, creating mean-reversion risk near term.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiration dates (June 12, 18, 26) extend the pinning and structural gamma influence over 2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$854.74$1007.34
Support at $854.74 (em guardrail), resistance at $1007.34; bullish bias with risk of pullback to MP
Next 2 weeks
$813.39$1048.69
Wider range $813-$1049; upside potential if spot holds gamma flip $860, else revisit $840 support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $840 (2026-06-12); $450 (2026-06-18); $840 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $854.74/$1007.34
Support: $860.00 · $840.00 · $813.39
Resistance: $1048.69
Gamma flip: ~$860.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 798 (7.6% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $840 (Jun 12), $450 (Jun 18), $840 (Jun 26). EM guardrails: 1w $854.74/$1007.34. Support: $860, $840, $813. Resistance: $1049. Gamma flip: ~$860.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.8M

DEX: +6.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$860 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 798 (7.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$4.8M (positive gamma), DEX +6.6M shares long. Gamma flip at ~$860 (put OI concentration 7.6% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (~18), reflecting event risk and structural dealer gamma; rich for longs but expected given pinning setup.

Term structure: Likely backwardation into June 12 expiry, flattening toward June 18; monitor kinks at weekly expirations.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $840; consider call spreads above $1000 to capture volatility contraction post-expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive at $113.5M with put volume dominating (P/C vol 1.43), suggesting bearish hedging or speculation.

Directional prints: 82.1 put 800 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 11.9: heavy put buying for downside protection or bearish bet. 114.7 put 170 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 2.1: speculative deep OTM put buying anticipating large drop. 88.7 call 900 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.7, 0DTE: likely closing of short calls or late bullish bet; low OI suggests closing.

Unusual: 82.1 put 800 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 11.9 extremely high; unusual put buying at elevated IV. 114.7 put 170 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 2.1, IV 115%: deep OTM put with high implied volatility, unusual speculative activity. 134.4 put 755 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.8, 0DTE, IV 134%: unusual high IV in 0DTE put, likely speculative.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot mean reversion to $840 max pain (10.8% below current) could trigger gamma flip and sharp sell-off.
!Mixed flow may reduce momentum; if VIX spikes, convexity could hurt long positions.
!Resistance at $1000+ limits upside if gamma support fails; break below $860 invalidates bullish structure.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-08-21 $830.00/$610.00 put spread
Why now: High IV and bullish thesis allow premium harvest with defined downside.
Spot could break below short put if gamma flips. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $920.00/$1240.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer gamma support and bullish flow justify low-cost upside.
Spot could mean revert to max pain, causing loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long callModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $1120.00 call
Why now: High IV and strong support justify long call for upside asymmetry.
Theta and IV contraction if spot stalls, plus pullback risk. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $920.00/$1240.00 call spread
Captures upside from gamma support and bullish flow with defined risk.
Why this play: Best alignment with bullish thesis and dealer support; limited downside with upside participation.
Debit: $86.31-$105.49
Max loss: $105.49
BE: $1025.49
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $860; consider closing near max gain or at expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders seeking moderate risk/reward with a bullish outlook.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $1120.00 call
Leverages high IV and structural support for outsized gains if rally continues.
Why this play: Provides maximum upside asymmetry for strong bullish conviction; benefits from high IV expansion.
Debit: $72.54-$88.66
Max loss: $88.66
BE: $1208.66
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $860 invalidation; take profits on spike in IV or price target. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders with high risk tolerance and bullish directional view.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $830.00/$610.00 put spread
Profits from time decay and sideways-to-up price action with defined risk below $830.
Why this play: Defensive bullish strategy; premium harvest with wider safety buffer, but limited upside.
Credit: $57.28-$70.02
Max loss: $149.98
BE: $759.98
Mgmt: Close if price breaks below $860; roll if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Conservative traders wanting income with downside protection.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $860 gamma flip with bullish flow → Enter bull call spread: Buy 2026-08-21 $920/$1240 call spread near $86-$105
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot breaks below $860 gamma flip → Close all bullish positions; consider hedging
EXITSpot reaches $1049 resistance → Take profits on bull call spread; consider rolling

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer support near $860 gamma flip and strong flow. Key support $860, resistance $1049. Spot 10.8% above max pain ($840) poses pullback risk. Recommended: Bull call spread (buy $920 call, sell $1240 call) for defined risk upside. Invalidate below $860. Take profits near $1049 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.