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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1038.59EOD only

Max Pain

$1010.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$85.05

8.2% from close

Price Gap

-28.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.18

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

STX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

High vol with mixed flow and pinning gamma indicates choppy range-bound action; spot below 6/26 max pain ($1020) but supported by dealer GEX (+$684K) and DEX (+5.2M shares). Bearish bias toward $923 support unless reclaim $1000 resistance.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 pinning gamma +0.5 moderate VIX = 8.5

Supports: Strong dealer gamma, positive DEX, crucial support at $916.35, max pain $1020 magnet
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, spot below $1000 resistance, near $980 support (7/2 max pain)

📉Bearish below $980; target $923 support

📌Gamma pinning at $1020 offers upside pull

⚠️High vol + mixed flow = choppy trading

🛡️$916 critical support; breach risks gamma flip

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV ~85% (90th percentile), elevated vs VIX 18.6; term structure steep into events.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Total GEX +$684K positive, gamma flip at $800; pin at $1020 (6/26) and $980 (7/2).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: P/C 1.2, net premium positive but no clear directional bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $978 below 6/26 max pain $1020 and near 7/2 max pain $980; upward pull likely.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple OPEX dates (6/26, 7/2, 7/10) with spot below all max pains; gradual drift toward higher pain but high vol keeps risk of expansion.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$923.65$1062.85

Pinning at $980 but high vol favors $923 test

Next 1 week

$878.70$1107.80

Expect drift to lower bound $878 due to lack catalyst

Next 2 weeks

$916.35$1070.15

Reversion to $940-$980 range; max pain draws price higher

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $1020 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $923.65/$1062.85; 1w $878.70/$1107.80

Support: $916.35

Resistance: $1000.00 · $1020.00 · $1070.15

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,679 (19.5% below spot)

Structural: Support $916.35; resistance $1000, $1020 (max pain 6/26), $1070.15 (2w high); gamma flip ~$800.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+684K

DEX: +5.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,679 (19.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$684K, DEX +5.2M shares; gamma flip $800; pins $1020, $980, $940.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX; elevated event premium suggests selling premium.

Term structure: Contango but steep front-end due to near-term expiries; back-month cheaper.

Skew: Negative skew (puts expensive); sell put spreads at $920 to collect premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$128M with P/C vol 1.07 indicates balanced flow but higher call premium.

Directional prints: 97.1 call 1100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Unusual call volume (287 vs OI 148) in deep OTM $1100, likely aggressive bullish positioning despite high IV. 107.4 put 200 OTM 2027-01-15 — Unusual put volume (216 vs OI 114) in deep OTM $200, suggests bearish hedge or speculative put buying.

Unusual: 97.1 call 1100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 1.9, call sweep buying? High IV may indicate premium selling opportunity. 107.4 put 200 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 1.9, put buying likely, bearish bet on long-term downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $800 accelerates downside

!High vol triggers trend day

!Mixed flow lacks breakout catalyst

!OPEX resets change dealer positioning

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $1005.00/$945.00 put spread Why now: High vol and mixed flow favor hedging downside; dealer gamma supports moves lower. Post-earnings expiry captures event risk.	Upside reversal above $1000 resistance could cause loss; time decay if slow grind higher. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $1050.00/$1060.00 call spread Why now: High IV inflates call premiums; mixed flow lacks breakout catalyst. Cap upside risk with defined-width spread.	Sharp bullish breakout above sold strike causes max loss; low pop if spot moves sideways slowly. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $1005.00/$945.00 put spread

Buys $1005 put, sells $945 put for defined risk/reward with bearish bias.

Why this play: Directly profits from expected downside to $945 support; higher max gain captures move.

Debit: $27.54-$33.66

Max loss: $33.66

BE: $971.34

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or if price reclaims $1000. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged downside.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $1050.00/$1060.00 call spread

Sells $1050 call, buys $1060 call to cap upside from high IV.

Why this play: Lowers cost basis with premium collection; limited upside risk suits mixed flow.

Credit: $4.32-$5.28

Max loss: $4.72

BE: $1055.28

Mgmt: Buy back if price approaches $1050 or hold to expiration for max decay. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders expecting range-bound price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF STX remains below $1000 for 2 consecutive hourly closes → THEN buy the 2026-07-31 $1005/$945 put spread for a debit of $27.54-$33.66

IFIF STX stays below $1000 and IV > 60% → THEN sell the 2026-07-31 $1050/$1060 call spread for a credit of $4.32-$5.28

Exit Triggers

EXITIF STX reclaims $1000 → THEN close the bear put spread at market

EXITIF STX approaches $1050 → THEN buy back the call credit spread to avoid assignment risk

Tactical Summary

STX near $916 support with mixed flow and pinning gamma. Bearish bias below $1000 resistance. Top plays: bear put spread targeting $945, and call credit spread capping upside at $1050. Adjust or exit if $1000 reclaimed.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.