thetaOwl

SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $16.58EOD only
Max Pain
$15.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.96
5.8% from close
Price Gap
-1.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
98
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

SOFI is in a high-vol regime with bullish flow and pinning gamma near 16.5, supporting a positive bias. Strong dealer GEX (+120.9M) and alignment of flow amplify conviction. The stock is above max pain and near EM guardrails for the 2d range. Expect upward drift toward resistance at 18.24 over the next 1-2 weeks, but tight pinning may cap near-term moves.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 gamma pinning; +0.5 spot close to MP; +0.5 VIX below 20. All factors bullish, no offset.
Supports: Bullish flow, pinning gamma near spot, dealer GEX positive, spot above max pain, VIX moderate.
Conflicts: High vol regime can lead to sharp reversals; resistance at 18.24 not yet tested; gamma flip at 15 downside risk.
📈Bullish flow and positive GEX align for upside.
📍Max pain pin at $16.5 for June 12, spot near that level.
⚠️High vol regime may cause overshoot above guardrails.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical range, VIX 19.4 supports high vol classification. Indicates potential for larger swings.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +120.9M, strong positive pinning near 16.5. Gamma flip at $15, ~10% below spot.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium bullish, P/C ratio skewed calls. Dealer positioning net long, amplifying directional movement.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot at ~16.5, above max pain for Jun 12 ($16) and near $16.5. Bullish bias as spot above key call strike.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained bullish flow and dealer gamma support over multiple expiries; no catalyst-driven event pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$16.15$17.20
Range 16.15-17.2; spot near support, bullish drift expected.
Next 1 week
$15.51$17.84
Range 15.51-17.84; broader upside to resistance.
Next 2 weeks
$15.10$18.24
Range 15.1-18.24; upside bias toward upper bound.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-06-12); $15 (2026-06-18); $17 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $16.15/$17.20; 1w $15.51/$17.84
Support: $16.50 · $15.10
Resistance: $18.24
Gamma flip: ~$15.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 77,748 (10.0% below spot)
Structural: Support at 16.5 (near current) and 15.1; resistance at 18.24. Max pain pins: $16 (Jun12), $15 (Jun18), $17 (Jun26). Gamma flip at $15. EM guardrails: 2d $16.15/$17.20; 1w $15.51/$17.84.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+120.9M

DEX: +112.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 77,748 (10.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$120.9M, DEX +112M shares. Gamma flip at $15. Strong positive gamma near spot supports pinning and upward drift.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOFI IV rich vs VIX (19.4); high vol regime makes premium expensive, favoring option selling or premium decay strategies for directional plays.

Term structure: Front-end elevated near expiry; no major event kinks observed. Short-dated vols higher, flattening into longer maturities.

Skew: Put skew elevated given bullish sentiment; call skew flatter. Opportunity: sell put spreads near support for theta decay, or buy calls for leveraged upside if confident in break of resistance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $13.1M, P/C vol 0.35: bullish.

Directional prints: 52.3 call 16.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.9; could be bought/sold; likely bought for upside. 55.5 call 16 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.1; could be bought/sold; preferred bullish. 72.7 call 15.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.9; likely bought.

Unusual: 55.5 call 16 ITM 2026-06-12 — Highest vol/oi (3.1); unusual, likely institutional buying. 110.9 call 15 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.3; high IV; preferred bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below support at 16.5
!Gamma flip at $15 triggers dealer hedging
!Volatility collapse lowers premium
!Unexpected macro risk (VIX still above 19)

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-02 $17.50/$18.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow, strong GEX near 16.5, and alignment with near-term leaning.
If stock stays flat or drops, debit loses value; time decay works against.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $16.00/$15.00 put spread
Why now: Support at 16.5 has high gamma and bullish flow; premium harvest attractive.
Break below 16.5 triggers losses; volatility expansion hurts.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $18.00 call / sell 2026-07-02 $16.00 put
Why now: Bullish intent with cheap financing; strong flow supports break above 18.
Sharp drop below 16 leads to large losses; margin intensive.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $17.50/$18.00 call spread
Captures upside on near-term drift to 18
Why this play: Aligns with bullish flow and GEX support near 16.5
Debit: $0.14-$0.17
Max loss: $0.17
BE: $17.67
Mgmt: Exit near 18 or on reversal below 16.5
Aggressive traders seeking defined risk
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-02 $18.00 call / sell 2026-07-02 $16.00 put
Unlimited upside potential with put sold at support
Why this play: Leverages bullish flow with cheap financing
Credit: $0.14-$0.18
Max loss: $15.82
BE: $15.82
Mgmt: Monitor short put below 16.5
Traders comfortable with naked puts
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $16.00/$15.00 put spread
Neutral to bullish income play
Why this play: Harvests premium from high gamma support
Credit: $0.30-$0.37
Max loss: $0.63
BE: $15.63
Mgmt: Roll or close if breach below 16.5
Income-focused traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSOFI holds above $16.5 supportEnter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-07-02 $17.50/$18.00 call spread
IFSOFI holds above $16.5 with bullish momentumEnter Bullish Risk Reversal: Buy 2026-07-02 $18.00 call / sell 2026-07-02 $16.00 put
Exit Triggers
EXITSOFI reaches $18.24 resistanceExit Bull Call Spread & Bullish Risk Reversal; close long positions
EXITSOFI breaks below $16.5Close Put Credit Spread: sell 2026-07-10 $16.00/$15.00 put spread; exit bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at 16.5 (strong GEX) and resistance at 18.24. Enter spreads on hold above 16.5, exit near resistance or below support. Monitor gamma flip at 15.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.