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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.85EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.73

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+5.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 high IV; +1 pinning; -1 mixed flow; -0 earnings in 3 weeks

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 83.2% — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Sharp backwardation: 2026-04-10 (4d) ATM IV = 76.5% vs 2026-04-17 (11d) ATM IV = 69.6% (6.9 vol point drop over 1 week)

💰Extremely rich IV favors premium sellers

📉Near-term IV backwardation of 6.9 points presents clear calendar spread opportunity

⚠️Earnings 4/30 — avoid selling naked through event

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above nearest max pain ($124) by 3.0%

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$98.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, negative gamma accelerates moves

OI concentrations: Call walls $135-$140 (33K+ OI each), Put floor $100-$105 (25K+ OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and OI clusters create magnetic pinning, supporting credit positions

Premium Opportunities

reverse calendar spread

Sell $128 straddle (call & put) 2026-04-10 (4 DTE), buy $128 straddle 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)

Capitalizes on sharp IV backwardation: front-week IV 76.5% vs next-week 69.6% (6.9 point differential). Sell overpriced front-week volatility, buy cheaper longer-dated volatility. Profits from IV decay and convergence post-any imminent event.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by long strikes)

BE: Depends on IV convergence and price movement

Mgmt: Close front leg at 50-70% profit if IV collapses; roll if spot moves beyond short strikes by 5%; exit entire position if IV differential narrows to <2 points.

put spread

Sell $120/$115 put spread 2026-04-10 (4 DTE)

High IV, pinning regime with spot above max pain $124. Put OI at $120 (10,782) provides support. Short strike is 6% OTM, within expected move. Defined risk complements calendar spread.

Credit: $0.45-$0.55

Max loss: $4.55

BE: $119.55

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if spot closes below $118 (below nearest GEX pin magnet $125).

iron condor

Sell $120/$115P x $135/$140C 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)

Wide range between put floor ($120) and call wall ($135). Positive GEX pinning and high IV provide premium. Max pain $134 aligns with short call.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: 118.60/136.40

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; roll untested side if spot breaches short strike by 5%; exit if spot closes outside $115-$140.

cash-secured put

Sell $115 put 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)

High IV provides >1.7% premium for 11 DTE. Strike is 10% OTM, below GEX pin magnet $125 and above put floor $100. Willing to own stock at $115.

Credit: $2.01-$2.11

Max loss: $112.89

BE: $112.89

Mgmt: Roll down and out if spot drops below $118; close at 70% profit; take assignment if below breakeven at expiration.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 4/30 — close all naked positions before 4/29; defined-risk spreads can be held but expect IV crush.

!Gamma flip ~$100 — breach accelerates downside; exit all credit positions on close below $100.

!Net premium -$268.7M indicates heavy put buying flow, suggesting institutional bearish hedging.

!Unusual put activity at $102 (111.7% IV) for 4/10 — monitor for downside pressure.

!High IV (83.2%) means IV crush risk post-earnings; avoid selling premium too close to event.

!Reverse calendar spread risk: front-week IV may not converge if unexpected event occurs; manage closely.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.