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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.85EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.73

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+5.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

MSTR Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/30 (24 days out). IV elevated with steep backwardation: 4/10 IV 76.5% vs 4/17 IV 69.6% (6.9-point differential). High GEX (+$98.5M) suggests pinning near $130-$132, but net premium flow is negative (-$268.7M), indicating bearish bets. Best strategy: put calendar spread to exploit IV term structure mispricing, with risk of directional gap.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict

Most important: IV backwardation >6 points between 4/10 and 4/17 expirations creates a clear volatility surface opportunity via calendar spreads.

📅Earnings confirmed 4/30, 24 days out

⚡IV backwardation of 6.9 points between 4/10 and 4/17 expirations presents a clear volatility surface trade opportunity

⚠️GEX +$98.5M suggests pinning, but net premium -$268.7M indicates bearish flow—watch for divergence resolution

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High (IV 83.2%)

Gamma Regime

Pinning (GEX +$98.5M)

Flow Regime

Mixed (net prem -$268.7M, P/C 1.08)

Spot vs MP

Above (spot $127.69 vs max pain $124)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration (25,681 at $100).

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (24 days)explicit

Expected moves:

4/24 (18d): ±$7.97 (6.2%) [$119.72 - $135.67]
5/01 (25d): ±$19.45 (15.2%) [$108.24 - $147.14]

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep backwardation: 4/10 IV 76.5% vs 4/17 IV 69.6% (6.9-point differential). No sharp kink yet, but 5/01 EM 15.2% suggests earnings pricing.

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts post-earnings, front-month IV likely collapses relative to back-month

Skew: P/C volume ratio 1.08 shows put volume slightly higher, but OI ratio 0.86 indicates more call OI.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM

Directional bias: Mixed: 2 gaps up, 2 gaps down last 4 quarters

Key Levels

1$130.00 (pin magnet, +$11.8M GEX)

2$132.00 (pin magnet, +$10.9M GEX)

3$125.00 (pin magnet, +$10.8M GEX)

4$135.00-$140.00 (call OI wall)

5$100.00-$105.00 (put floor)

Flow Highlights

Net premium -$268.7M, driven by large OTM put buys (e.g., $315 put net -$48.7M)

Institutional bearish hedging or speculation, contradicting positive GEX pinning.

$130 call 4/10: $8.4M premium inflow (net $5.9M)

Near-term bullish flow at key pin level.

Strategies

Put calendar spread (IV backwardation play)

Sell 04/10 $120 put (IV 82.4%), buy 04/17 $120 put (IV 73.7%)

Credit: $0.40-$0.90

Max loss: Limited to debit paid (approx $2-4)

Max gain: Credit received + IV crush differential

BE: Stock at or above $120 at 04/10 expiry, with IV decay

Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings, ideally when IV differential >5 points

Exploits steep IV backwardation (6.9-point differential) between April expirations. Strike at $120 aligns with near-term EM lower bound ($119.72) and put OI cluster (10,782 OI) for potential support. Non-directional, capitalizes on IV decay in elevated front-month.

Outperforms: Stock stays at or above $120, front-month IV crushes rapidly post-earnings

Underperforms: Stock drops sharply below $120, causing near-dated put to go ITM

Short strangle (sell elevated IV)

Sell $120 put and $140 call 5/01

Credit: $5.50-$6.50

Max loss: Unlimited

Max gain: $6.00

BE: 113.5/146.5

Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >70%

IV elevated (73% for 5/01), GEX pinning supports range-bound action. Strikes chosen within EM guardrails and near key levels.

Outperforms: Stock stays within $120-$140 (EM bounds $108.24-$147.14), IV crushes

Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20%

Long straddle (directional breakout)

Buy $128 straddle 5/01

Max loss: $19.45

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: 108.55/147.45

Trigger: Enter if IV <75% and stock shows pre-earnings volatility compression

Historical EPS surprises large (e.g., +3.82, -148.91), potential for outsized move despite pinning.

Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM 15.2% by >30%

Underperforms: Stock pins near $130, IV crushes post-earnings

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 15.2% for 5/01, but historical EPS surprises extreme (e.g., -148.91) could cause larger move, especially below $100 put floor.

!IV crush: Front-month IV likely drops 6-10 pts post-earnings; calendar spreads benefit, long straddles suffer.

!Liquidity: Sufficient (2M+ OI, 300K volume), but wide spreads on OTM strikes like $120.

!Sizing: Keep positions small due to high volatility, contradictory signals (GEX vs flow), and earnings event risk.

What to Watch

?IV term structure for maintenance of backwardation >5 points

?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $102 put 4/10, IV 111.7%)

?Spot vs $130-$132 pin magnets and $100-$105 put floor

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.