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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.35
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 28 days (4/30). IV remains extremely elevated (85% avg) with a sharp term structure kink at the 5/01 expiration, confirming the earnings date. The best strategy is selling premium via an iron condor, capitalizing on high IV and the stock's historical tendency to under-move its expected move. The key risk is a large directional gap, amplified by the spot price dropping below key gamma levels.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 7; +0.5 clear term structure kink; +0.5 high IV crush potential; -1.0 spot moved significantly lower, increasing gap risk
Most important: Spot has fallen to $119.83, well below the 4/02 max pain of $125 and near the lower bound of the 8-day expected move. This increases immediate pinning pressure and directional risk into earnings.
⚠️Spot price has dropped to $119.83, below key near-term max pain levels. This increases directional risk and may alter pinning dynamics.
📅Earnings date is estimated (4/30). Confirm as date approaches. IV kink at 5/01 expiration is the primary marker.
📉Historical EPS beat rate is only 25%. Bias is strongly towards negative surprises.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 85%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$24.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-287.1M, P/C 0.61)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 12.5% (spot $119.83 vs MP $137)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low due to massive $5 put OI concentration. Below $5, dealers amplify moves, but spot is far away.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (29d): ±$19.73 (16.5%) [$100.11 - $139.56]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (29d) to 73.3% vs 65.7% for 4/10 (8d). IV rises steadily into earnings.

Crush estimate: ~15-18 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~55-58% range.

Skew: Extreme OTM put skew persists in premium flow. Near-term skew shows elevated put IV (e.g., 4/10 $115P at 70.3%) relative to calls, indicating downside hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price data for precise % move, but EPS surprises are large and often negative.

Directional bias: Mixed, but strong negative surprise bias (3 of 4 quarters).

Key Levels

1$125 max pain (4/02)
2$127 max pain (4/10)
3EM: $100 - $140
4$100 put OI wall (24,840)
5$135 call OI wall (33,440)

Flow Highlights

Massive unusual volume in 4/10 $125C (26,381 vol vs 4,594 OI) and $132C (26,096 vol vs 5,392 OI).

Aggressive near-term call buying, likely positioning for a bounce back toward max pain ($125-$127) before earnings.

Large premium outflow on OTM puts continues (e.g., $315P net -$50.8M), but net premium outflow improved from -$398.9M to -$287.1M.

Institutional tail-risk hedging remains heavy but has eased slightly. Still a dominant skew feature.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Adjusted for Lower Spot)
Sell $95/$90P x $145/$150C 5/01
Credit: $3.80-$4.50
Max loss: $1.20
Max gain: $4.50
BE: $90.50 / $149.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (around 4/23).
Capitalizes on extremely high IV and expected crush. Strikes adjusted wider on the put side to account for lower spot price ($119.83) and increased gap risk. Still collects substantial premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the wide 16.5% expected move bounds ($100-$140). IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $90 or above $150.
Strangle Sale (Higher Risk/Reward)
Sell $95P / $145C 5/01
Credit: $6.50-$8.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.00
BE: $88.50 / $151.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if IV remains >70%.
More aggressive premium capture. Wider breakevens (beyond the EM) due to high credit collected. Suitable for traders with higher risk tolerance believing in a pin near $120-$135.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $88.50 and $151.50. Maximizes IV crush premium capture.
Underperforms: Large directional gap beyond breakevens.
Long Put Spread (Defensive/Bearish Bias)
Buy $115P / Sell $105P 5/01
Max loss: $10.00
Max gain: $10.00
BE: $110.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if spot remains below $125 and you anticipate another negative EPS surprise.
Historical EPS miss bias (25% beat rate). Defines risk while positioning for a move towards or below the lower expected move bound ($100). Adjusted strikes lower to reflect current spot.
Outperforms: Stock declines below $110 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies or stays flat; IV crush hurts but is partially offset by directional move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Very High. 16.5% expected move is enormous. Spot has dropped ~$5 since prior report, increasing volatility and potential for a large move.
!IV crush: High probability and magnitude (~15-18 vol points). Long premium strategies need a massive directional move to overcome.
!Liquidity: Good. High OI and volume, though be mindful of wide spreads on OTM strikes used in condors.
!Sizing: Size very small. The high credit on premium sales can lead to large notional risk. Increased gap risk warrants caution.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to the $125 and $127 max pain levels for 4/02 and 4/10 expirations.
?Bitcoin price action, as it is the primary driver of MSTR's valuation and recent spot decline.
?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration over the next 3 weeks for entry timing on premium sales.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.