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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.35
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 30 days (4/30). IV is extremely elevated (84% avg) and term structure shows a sharp kink around earnings, making IV crush plays highly attractive. The best strategy is selling premium via an iron condor, given the stock's tendency to under-move its expected move historically and the massive premium available.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 7; +0.5 high IV crush potential; +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 (31d) confirms earnings date and crush target. Stock historically under-moves its expected move.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (4/30). Confirm as date approaches. IV kink at 5/01 expiration is the primary marker.
📉Historical EPS beat rate is only 25%. Bias is towards negative surprises.
💰Extreme IV (84%) offers very rich premium to sell. Crush play is the standout setup.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 84%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$50.1M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-398.9M, P/C 0.56)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 8.9% (spot $124.80 vs MP $137)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low due to massive $5 put OI concentration. Below $5, dealers amplify moves, but spot is far away.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$21.10 (16.9%) [$103.70 - $145.90]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (31d) to 73.1% vs 66.7% for 4/10 (10d). IV rises steadily into earnings.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~55-60% range.

Skew: Extreme OTM put skew evident in premium flow (massive negative net prem on $200+ puts). Calls show more typical structure.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise % move, but 3 of 4 quarters had negative EPS surprises.

Directional bias: Mixed, but negative surprise bias.

Key Levels

1$137 max pain (3/27)
2$125 max pain (4/02)
3EM: $104 - $146
4$100 put OI wall (23,473)
5$135 call OI wall (33,421)

Flow Highlights

Massive premium outflow on OTM puts ($200, $210, $315, etc.) totaling hundreds of millions negative net premium.

Institutional hedging or tail-risk buying far OTM. Creates a skewed risk profile but may not impact near-term earnings pricing.

Unusual volume in 4/02 $124P (3,497 vol vs 741 OI) and $122C (3,586 vol vs 926 OI).

Near-term directional bets or gamma positioning around the $125 max pain for 4/02.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $105/$100P x $145/$150C 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: $0.50
Max gain: $4.50
BE: $100.50 / $149.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (around 4/23).
Capitalizes on extremely high IV and expected crush. Strikes set just outside the expected move to account for historical under-move tendency. High credit provides a large buffer.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the wide 16.9% expected move bounds. IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond $100 or above $150 (outside short strikes).
Strangle Sale (Higher Risk/Reward)
Sell $100P / $150C 5/01
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.00
BE: $92.00 / $158.00
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if IV remains >70%.
More aggressive premium capture. Wider breakevens (beyond the EM) due to high credit collected. Suitable for traders with higher risk tolerance believing in a pin near $125-$135.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $92 and $158. Maximizes IV crush premium capture.
Underperforms: Large directional gap beyond breakevens.
Long Put Spread (Defensive/Bearish Bias)
Buy $120P / Sell $110P 5/01
Max loss: $10.00
Max gain: $10.00
BE: $115.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if spot is near $125 and you anticipate a miss/negative guidance.
Historical EPS miss bias. Defines risk while positioning for a move towards the lower end of the expected move or below. Benefits from a drop more than it suffers from IV crush.
Outperforms: Stock declines below $115 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies or stays flat; IV crush hurts but is partially offset by directional move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High. 16.9% expected move is enormous. Stock is volatile and tied to Bitcoin sentiment, which could drive a move beyond EM.
!IV crush: High probability and magnitude (~15-20 vol points). Long premium strategies need a very large directional move to overcome.
!Liquidity: Good. High OI and volume across strikes, though be mindful of wide spreads on OTM strikes used in condors.
!Sizing: Size small. The high credit on premium sales can lead to large notional risk if over-levered.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration over the next 3 weeks.
?Bitcoin price action, as it is the primary driver of MSTR's valuation.
?Spot price relative to the $125 and $137 max pain levels for nearer-term pinning effects.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.