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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $421.06EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.28

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-6.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MSFT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 massive net put premium persists; -1 P/C volume ratio neutralized; +0.5 GEX/flow misalignment; +0.5 spot above MP; -0 VIX normal

Watch next session: Spot reaction near $367.50 (largest near-term put OI); Any call buying to offset the massive put premium overhang

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$834.5M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.95 — neutral

P/C OI ratio: 0.45 — moderate call lean

The extreme bearish flow from the prior session has moderated significantly, but a large net put premium overhang remains. Volume is now balanced (P/C 0.95), indicating the aggressive hedging has paused. The market is in a holding pattern, with positive GEX pinning price action against a backdrop of established, large-scale downside protection.

Notable Prints

MSFT 4/6 $367.50 Put

Vol: 4,547

OI: 331

Vol/OI: 13.7x

IV: 19.4%

Notional: ~$16.7M (4,547 * 100 * $367.50)

Intent: Near-term tactical hedge or bearish bet

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (reducing hedge)

Read-through: This is the most active single strike in today's flow. The $367.50 strike is just below the expected move low ($367.81) for 4/6 expiry, targeting an immediate breakdown. Low IV suggests opening buy flow, adding to near-term downside pressure.

MSFT 4/6 $377.50 Call

Vol: 5,070

OI: 566

Vol/OI: 9.0x

IV: 17.8%

Notional: ~$18.8M (5,070 * 100 * $371)

Intent: Short-dated upside speculation or delta hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout bet) or sold (covered call/writing against long stock)

Read-through: Sizable activity at a strike just above spot. The low IV and short expiry suggest this could be call writing for yield against long stock, which would be a neutral-to-bearish income play, not a bullish directional bet.

MSFT 4/17 $475 Put

Vol: 5,460

OI: 831

Vol/OI: 6.6x

IV: 71.3%

Notional: ~$20.2M (5,460 * 100 * $370)

Intent: Addition to existing institutional hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (protective) or sold to open (yield, unlikely given IV context)

Read-through: Follow-on activity in the core hedging zone established in the prior session ($440-$515 puts). The elevated IV and OTM strike confirm this as part of the ongoing, large-scale downside protection overlay, not a new panic signal.

MSFT 4/10 $407.50 Call

Vol: 1,819

OI: 159

Vol/OI: 11.4x

IV: 25.4%

Notional: ~$6.7M (1,819 * 100 * $370)

Intent: Upside lottery ticket or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (speculative) or sold (part of a vertical/call spread)

Read-through: A ~9% OTM call with 8 DTE. This is likely a low-cost, speculative bet on a sharp rally or could be a short leg of a bear call spread. Its size is modest compared to the put flow.

MSFT 4/6 $362.50 Put

Vol: 1,528

OI: 141

Vol/OI: 10.8x

IV: 20.4%

Notional: ~$5.7M

Intent: Near-term downside target

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (closing)

Read-through: Targets a ~3% drop from spot within 4 days. Complements the $367.50P flow, building a ladder of near-term put strikes. Consistent with a tactical bearish or hedging bias for this week.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Slight activity in short-dated OTM calls ($377.50, $407.50) which are more likely yield-generating or spread-related than directional.

Put additions: Continued adds in the $475 Put (4/17) and new tactical puts at $367.50 and $362.50 (4/6). The mega-hedge in the $440-$515 zone remains the dominant positioning feature.

GEX/DEX consistency: No — Positive GEX (+$63.1M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting support, while flow and OI show a clear bearish hedge overlay. This tension remains unresolved.

OI clusters: Near-term: New put OI building at $367.50 and $362.50 (4/6). Medium-term: Massive put OI walls in the $440-$515 zone (April/May). Call OI remains concentrated in ultra-high strikes ($575+) which are legacy/noise.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. The $475P print and the top premium flow strikes (all puts at $450-$490) confirm institutions are maintaining or adding to large, OTM downside protection positions established previously.

Max pain context: Spot ($373.46) is above all near-term max pain levels ($350-$375), providing a mild gravitational pull higher. The rising MP trend to $390+ in later expiries suggests the structural options market is still positioned for higher prices over time.

Signal vs Noise

~The ultra-high strike call OI ($575, $625, $525) remains noise—these are legacy positions, speculative leaps, or part of complex structures like ratios or diagonals, not current directional signals.

~The massive net put premium from top flow strikes ($450-$490) is a continuation of the prior day's institutional hedging. It is a strong signal of risk-off positioning, but not a new panic event.

~Short-dated call activity ($377.50C, $407.50C) is more likely related to covered call writing or spread structures given the low IV and context of dominant put hedging, not fresh bullish conviction.

Key Conclusions

⚖️Flow has moderated from extreme to mixed, but the bearish hedge overhang remains massive.

🛡️Institutions are adding tactical, near-dated puts ($367.50, $362.50) alongside maintaining core OTM hedges.

⚔️Conflict persists: Positive GEX pins price, while bearish flow bets on a breakdown. A break below $367.50 is critical.

🎯Key near-term level: $367.50 (largest put flow strike). A hold above supports the GEX pin; a break confirms the flow thesis.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.