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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $421.06EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.28

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-6.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MSFT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net put premium; +1.5 extreme P/C volume ratio; +0 GEX/flow misalignment; -0 VIX normal

Watch next session: Spot reaction near $365 (near-term support); Any call buying to offset massive put flow

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$3.13B bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.56 — extreme put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.45 — moderate call lean in positioning

Massive, concentrated bearish flow dominates the session with over $3B in net put premium. This is a clear institutional hedging or downside positioning event, focused on April and May expirations at strikes $440-$515. The extreme P/C volume ratio contrasts with a call-leaning OI base, suggesting a significant new risk-off overlay.

Notable Prints

MSFT 4/17 $440 Put

Vol: 14,805

OI: 590

Vol/OI: 25.1x

IV: 49.6%

Notional: ~$547.8M (14,805 * 100 * $370)

Intent: Large-scale downside protection or bearish bet

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish hedge) or sold to open (yield, but unlikely given flow context)

Read-through: Core of the bearish flow. A $440 strike, 17 DTE put is a direct hedge against a ~8.2% drop from spot. The size and IV (~50%) suggest bought puts.

MSFT 4/17 $490 Put

Vol: 16,195

OI: 642

Vol/OI: 25.2x

IV: 50.8%

Notional: ~$599.2M

Intent: Institutional downside hedge

Dual read: Bought (protective) or sold (covered put writing)

Read-through: Another massive block in the April expiry cluster. The $490 strike (~32% above spot) is extremely OTM for a near-term hedge, which could indicate tail-risk protection for a large portfolio, not just a directional MSFT bet.

MSFT 5/15 $480 Put

Vol: 9,133

OI: 356

Vol/OI: 25.6x

IV: 46.8%

Notional: ~$338.0M

Intent: Medium-term downside protection

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish)

Read-through: Extends the hedging theme into May. The $480 strike is ~30% OTM, consistent with a portfolio hedge rather than a near-term directional punt. The elevated but not extreme IV suggests buying.

MSFT 4/17 $465 Put

Vol: 8,267

OI: 329

Vol/OI: 25.1x

IV: 62.1%

Notional: ~$305.9M

Intent: Downside hedge

Dual read: Bought (protective)

Read-through: Part of the dense put cluster in April. The higher IV (62.1%) on this strike relative to others might indicate more acute fear at that specific level ($465 is ~25% above spot).

MSFT 4/1 $372.50 Put

Vol: 7,483

OI: 238

Vol/OI: 31.4x

IV: 22.7%

Notional: ~$277.0M

Intent: Near-dated hedge or speculative put

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (closing long put)

Read-through: The only notable near-dated, near-the-money activity. This is likely a tactical, short-term bearish bet or hedge against an immediate move, given expiration in 1 day. The lower IV suggests it could be opening buy.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: None evident in unusual flow. Top OI calls are at extremely high strikes ($575, $625) and likely legacy positions.

Put additions: Massive additions at $440-$515 strikes for April and May expirations.

GEX/DEX consistency: No — Positive GEX (+$129.5M) suggests a pinning/mean-reverting force, but flow is overwhelmingly bearish. This creates tension: GEX may provide near-term support, but flow is betting on a break.

OI clusters: Near-term: Call OI is diffuse with large walls at ultra-high strikes ($575+). Put OI is now building heavily in the $440-$515 zone for April/May, creating potential support magnets if spot falls.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. The size, OTM nature, and multi-expiry pattern of put buying is classic institutional portfolio hedging against a broader market decline, using MSFT as a liquid proxy.

Max pain context: Spot ($370.17) is well above near-term max pain ($350-$375). The rising MP trend suggests the options market is structurally positioned for higher prices over time, which contrasts sharply with today's bearish flow.

Signal vs Noise

~The ultra-high strike call OI ($575, $625, $525) is almost certainly noise—these are likely legacy positions, speculative lottery tickets, or part of complex structures, not indicative of current directional bias.

~The extremely OTM nature of the put flow ($440-$515) suggests it is primarily portfolio hedging (signal for broad risk-off) rather than a direct bearish bet on MSFT collapsing imminently.

~Low IV on the 4/1 $372.50P suggests it's not panic buying; it could be a closing trade or a defined-risk bearish play.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Extreme bearish flow signal: $3.1B net put premium & P/C vol 1.56

🛡️Flow is institutional hedging (OTM, multi-expiry puts), not panic selling

⚔️Conflict: Bullish GEX/pinning vs. Bearish flow. Watch for a break of GEX support.

🎯Key levels: Immediate support at $365 (near-term expected move low). Hedge zone begins at $440.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.