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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $31.59EOD only
Max Pain
$36.00
Next expiry Jun 30, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.96
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+4.41
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
35
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

FXI is in a bearish regime with high volatility, spot below max pain, and negative dealer gamma. Upcoming expirations (Jun 30, Jul 2, Jul 10) create pinning risk. Bearish flow and elevated IV support downside bias, but positive dealer delta and gamma flip near $30 introduce conflict. Thesis: bearish with event-specific duration, targeting support levels.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 11.9% from MP; +1 VIX 18 => total 7. No override needed.
Supports: Bearish flow, high vol, negative dealer gamma, spot below max pain (Jun 30 $36, Jul 2 $32).
Conflicts: Positive dealer delta (+109.8M shares) may support; gamma flip near $30 could act as pivot; VIX elevated may signal risk-off but can reverse.
🔻Spot ~$31.7 below Jun 30 max pain $36; bearish flow suggests downside path of least resistance.
⚠️Negative dealer gamma (-$14.8M) amplifies any move below $30 (gamma flip based on put OI).
📅Expirations Jun 30, Jul 2, Jul 10 create event-specific pinning; spot likely drifts toward support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime; IV elevated relative to VIX 18, indicating stock-specific uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma; dealer gamma negative (-$14.8M) implying short gamma, magnifies directional moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish net premium flow with put dominance, pressuring spot.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot (~$31.72) well below max pain $36 (Jun 30) and subsequent pins ($32, $34), reinforcing bearish tilt.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming monthly and weekly expirations (Jun 30, Jul 2, Jul 10) dominate; bearish flow and gamma set up for move toward support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$30.27$33.15
Resistance $33.15; support $30.27 (gamma flip zone); risk of test of $30.
Next 2 weeks
$29.58$33.84
Key support $29.58; resistance $33.84; breakdown below $30 opens $29.58.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-06-30); $32 (2026-07-02); $34 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $30.27/$33.15
Support: $30.00 · $29.58
Resistance: $33.84
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 74,343 (5.4% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $36 (Jun 30), $32 (Jul 2), $34 (Jul 10). Support: $30.0, $29.58. Resistance: $33.84. Gamma flip near $30 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-14.8M

DEX: +109.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 74,343 (5.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma: -$14.8M (short gamma). Net delta: +109.8M shares (long). Gamma flip: ~$30. Negative gamma amplifies directional volatility; positive delta provides some support but can flip if spot drops.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV is elevated relative to VIX 17.65, reflecting event-specific uncertainty and bearish sentiment.

Term structure: Not provided; typical backwardation near monthly expiration (Jun 30) skewing short-dated puts.

Skew: Put skew likely elevated; bearish put spreads (e.g., buy $30 put, sell $28 put) could capitalize on downside with defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $56.6M with put/call volume ratio 2.05, indicating strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 384.8 put 36 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol 33,454 vs OI 9,500, expiring next day, high IV 384.8%, aggressive bearish positioning or protective puts. 61 put 41 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol 4,440 vs OI 1,053, deep ITM puts with elevated IV, bearish sentiment. 168.2 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2,940 vs OI 761, deep ITM puts with extremely high IV, likely hedging or bearish flow.

Unusual: 47.4 call 32 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol 10,115 vs OI 125 (vol/OI 80.9), extremely high relative volume, long-dated OTM call unusual. 152.3 put 39 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 4,460 vs OI 1,165 (vol/OI 3.8), high IV and volume, unusual bearish flow near expiration. 26.4 put 31 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol 2,451 vs OI 1,097 (vol/OI 2.2), moderate volume but unusual ITM put with lower IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Short squeeze if positive catalyst drives spot above resistance $33.15.
!Volatility crush post-expiration reduces premium for bearish positions.
!Unexpected bullish shift in China policy or stimulus.
!Gamma flip at $30 may act as support and reverse trend if held.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Why now: Defined risk bearish spread to profit from downside while managing vol crush.
Max loss limited to net debit; vol crush may reduce P&L. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
Why now: Beneficiary of downside continuation; defined risk from long put.
Time decay if spot stabilizes; vol crush. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.50/$30.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk downside with elevated put premium.
Volatility crush or squeeze above $33. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (185%).; short_put: Volume below 5.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $33.00/$35.50 call spread
Why now: Sell elevated call IV with defined risk.
Upside breakout above short call strike. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (133%).
Long putWeak
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
Why now: Direct put purchase for tail risk and gamma.
Time decay and high IV premium cost. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread $30/$29
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Buy $30 put, sell $29 put for net debit ~0.08. Max profit 0.92 if below $29, max loss 0.08. Benefits from downside while limiting vol crush risk.
Why this play: Defined risk, low cost, captures downside move with volatility premium. Best candidate given bearish thesis and high IV.
Debit: $0.07-$0.09
Max loss: $0.09
BE: $29.91
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or stop loss if spot above $31. Monitor for early expiration pinning. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure with limited capital at risk.
#2
Long Put $30
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
Buy $30 put for ~0.19. Max loss capped, profits if spot falls. Gamma increases near expiration, amplifying moves.
Why this play: Unlimited downside potential with defined risk. Higher cost but direct bearish bet on continued decline.
Debit: $0.17-$0.21
Max loss: $0.21
BE: $29.79
Mgmt: Set stop loss at 50% premium decay. Take partial profits at key support levels. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders expecting sharp downside and willing to absorb higher premium for leveraged returns.
#3
Call Credit Spread $33/$35.50
Sell 2026-07-17 $33.00/$35.50 call spread
Sell $33 call, buy $35.50 call for net credit ~0.37. Max profit 0.37 if spot below $33, max loss 2.13 above $35.50.
Why this play: Sells elevated call IV, profiting from bearish bias and volatility contraction. Defined risk alternative.
Credit: $0.33-$0.41
Max loss: $2.09
BE: $33.41
Mgmt: Exit at 70% max profit or if spot approaches $33.50. Adjust if volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (133%).
Traders favoring bearish but with less directional conviction, targeting premium decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf FXI spot breaks below $30.00 with volume, then enter Bear Put Spread $30/$29 for net debit 0.07-0.09. → Enter bear_put_1: buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$29.00 put spread.
IFIf FXI spot trades at $30.00 or below and IV remains elevated, then buy Long Put $30 for 0.17-0.21. → Enter long_put_1: buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put.
IFIf FXI spot rallies to $33.00 with bearish momentum failure, then sell Call Credit Spread $33/$35.50 for net credit 0.33-0.41. → Enter fxi_call_credit_002: sell 2026-07-17 $33.00/$35.50 call spread.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf FXI spot reaches $29.58 or lower, take partial profits on bearish positions. → Exit 50% of bear_put_1 and long_put_1; hold remainder for $29.00.
EXITIf FXI spot closes above $33.84 (resistance), exit all bearish positions to avoid short squeeze risk. → Close bear_put_1, long_put_1, and fxi_call_credit_002.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with support at $30.00 and $29.58; resistance at $33.84. Gamma flip near $30 adds pinning risk. Preferred: Bear Put Spread $30/$29 for defined risk. Monitor for volatility crush post-expiration; invalidation above $33.84.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.