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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFEOD only

Max Pain

$35.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.17

9.5% from close

Price Gap

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish thesis with downside risk to $32.41 within 1 week, driven by bearish flow and negative GEX. Proximity to max pain ($34) and put OI concentration may cause choppy price action. Confidence above neutral due to GEX/flow alignment.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -0.5 spot 3.1% below MP; +1 VIX at 17. Net 7.5.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, below MP, support at 32.81-33.0.
Conflicts: Proximity to max pain $34 and put OI concentration may limit downside.

🟢GEX/flow alignment: -$83.1M GEX and bearish flow pressure downside.

⚠️Spot 3.1% below MP $34: pin risk and magnetic pull toward MP.

📉Key support at $32.41-$32.81: break below opens $32.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol normal with VIX at 17; no extreme volatility anticipated.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma trending: dealers net short gamma at -$83.1M, amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow bearish; net short gamma and put-heavy positioning suggest downward pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 3.1% below max pain $34; creates pin risk but bearish flow dominates.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple max pain pins (Jun 26, Jun 30, Jul 2) and negative GEX point to event-driven risk. Spot below MP pressures toward MP, but dealer positioning implies downside vulnerability.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$32.41$34.46

Bearish flow and negative gamma target range low $32.41.

Next 2 weeks

$32.81$34.05

Resistance at $34.05; deeper support at $32.81 with possible reversal if pin action occurs.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30); $34 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $32.41/$34.46

Support: $33.00 · $32.81

Resistance: $34.05 · $34.50

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,000 (25.2% below spot)

Structural: Support: 33.0 (near spot), 32.81 (2w low), 32.41 (1w low); Resistance: 34.05 (2w high), 34.5; Gamma flip ~$25 (far).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-83.1M

DEX: +101.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,000 (25.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$83.1M), long delta (+101.3M shares). Negative gamma amplifies downside. Gamma flip ~$25 (put OI concentration), not near-term risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV near normal relative to VIX 17; not indicative of stress.

Term structure: Likely contango; event kinks near weekly expirations (Jun 26, Jul 2) may flatten.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; no clear vol structure opportunity; focus on direction.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$43.1M (net credit received), put/call ratio 3.34, strong bearish flow with heavy put buying.

Directional prints: 26 put 30 OTM 2026-09-18 — Volume 59,816 vs OI 20,717 (vol/OI 2.9), new put buying; preferred read bearish.

Unusual: 40.6 put 30 OTM 2027-05-21 — Volume 6,000 vs OI 567 (vol/OI 10.6), extremely high relative volume, likely bought; bearish. 38.7 call 32 ITM 2026-07-17 — Volume 400 vs OI 114 (vol/OI 3.5), bullish call buying amid bearish flow; contrarian.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin action from max pain $34 could trigger short squeeze.

!Break above $34.5 resistance invalidates bearish thesis.

!Unexpected positive China stimulus news.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $33.00/$31.50 put spread Why now: Debit spread profits from decline, defined risk, aligns with short-term bearish lean.	Break above $34.5 invalidates; max loss limited to debit paid. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (67%).
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put Why now: Net premium negative $43.1M with 3.34 put/call ratio; cheap near-term puts.	Time decay if move delayed; theta accelerates near expiration.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $36.00/$37.00 call spread Why now: Call credit spread profits from flat/decline with defined risk; low IV skew supports it.	Squeeze above $34.5 causes loss; max loss bounded by width. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (159%).

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put

Buys downside protection with defined risk, profits from decline past $32.50.

Why this play: Liquid, cheap puts aligned with bearish flow and heavy put buying.

Debit: $0.24-$0.30

Max loss: $0.30

BE: $32.20

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $34.05 invalidation; take profit at $30 or as trend weakens.

Traders seeking direct bearish exposure with high liquidity.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $33.00/$31.50 put spread

Debit spread targeting $31.50 downside; max loss capped at $0.34.

Why this play: Defined risk, lower cost than outright put, profits from decline.

Debit: $0.27-$0.34

Max loss: $0.34

BE: $32.66

Mgmt: Exit if price above $34.05; take profit near $31.50. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (67%).

Traders wanting limited risk bearish play with lower volatility exposure.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $36.00/$37.00 call spread

Sells call spread to collect premium; benefits from price staying below $36.

Why this play: Profits from flat to slight decline, defined risk, but less direct.

Credit: $0.13-$0.16

Max loss: $0.84

BE: $36.16

Mgmt: Manage early if price approaches $36; stop at invalidation $34.05. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (159%).

Traders expecting choppy action around $34 max pain.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFBreak below 33.0 support → Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put (strategy_2)

IFRejection at 34.05 resistance → Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put (strategy_2)

Exit Triggers

EXITClose above 34.5 invalidation → Close long put (strategy_2) position

Tactical Summary

Bearish thesis targeting $32.41 within 1 week. Top play: long put (strategy_2). Enter on breakdown below 33.0 or rejection at 34.05. Stop loss above 34.5. Watch max pain $34 for choppy action.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.