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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $34.56EOD only

Max Pain

$37.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.35

1.0% from close

Price Gap

+2.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by negative dealer gamma, bearish flow, and spot below max pain. Short-term selling pressure likely, but spot far from MP may cause sharp bounces. Thesis duration event-specific to OPEX.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment -1 spot 9.1% from MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 6.5.

Supports: Negative GEX (-$411.6M), bearish flow, trending gamma, spot below MP.
Conflicts: Spot far below MP could cause reversal; broader market risk-off may hedge China exposure.

🐻Dealer short gamma amplifies downside moves.

⚠️Spot 9% below max pain $37; potential pinning catalyst.

📉Bearish flow and vol regime consistent.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol is Normal (IV ~20-25%?) but elevated relative to spot moves; VIX 18.44 supports moderate vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending regime with negative gamma (-$411.6M); dealers hedge directionally, accelerating moves. Gamma flip near $32.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow with net put premium; P/C ratio elevated, consistent with downside protection.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP ($37) by 9.1%; pin probability low but could force hedging into OPEX.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term OPEX (6/18) and negative gamma create event-specific dynamics; multi-week outlook uncertain.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$33.11$34.20

Resistance at $34.20; support $33.11. Negative gamma favors downside.

Next 1 week

$31.70$35.61

Range $31.70-$35.61; break below $33.11 opens $32. Gamma flip at $32.

Next 2 weeks

$31.47$35.84

Wider range $31.47-$35.84; bearish bias unless China catalyst emerges.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-06-18); $35 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $33.11/$34.20; 1w $31.70/$35.61

Support: $32.00 · $31.47

Resistance: $35.84 · $37.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (4.9% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $37 (6/18); EM guardrails 2d 33.11/34.20, 1w 31.70/35.61; support 32.0, 31.47; resistance 35.84, 37.0; gamma flip ~$32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-411.6M

DEX: +157.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (4.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma -$411.6M (short gamma); dealers hedge moves, amplifying trends. Total delta +157.7M shares (long). Gamma flip at ~$32.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV is elevated relative to VIX, reflecting China-specific risk premium (tariff, policy). Rich vs sector, favors selling vol.

Term structure: Contango with front end flat; slight kink around 6/18 OPEX. Longer-dated vol higher.

Skew: Put skew steep; no clear skew trade. Opportunity: sell short-dated puts above $32 for theta decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative at -$66M with heavy put volume (P/C 2.45), indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 179.7 put 41 ITM 2026-06-18 — Large OTM put volume (31.5k vs 13.3k OI, ratio 2.4); bearish positioning. Likely bought. 89.6 put 40 ITM 2026-07-17 — High OTM put vol (15k vs 6.8k OI, ratio 2.2); adds bearish pressure. Likely bought.

Unusual: 30.1 put 33.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Extreme vol/OI 12.8 on OTM put; possibly hedging or speculative. Likely bought. 47.7 call 42 OTM 2027-03-19 — Unusual call vol on deep OTM long-dated call; bullish anticipation. Likely bought. 207.8 call 29 ITM 2026-06-18 — Very high IV (208%) on ITM call; cheap call buying. Likely bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!China stimulus announcement could reverse bearish thesis.

!US-China tariff escalation or de-escalation surprise.

!Spot pinning to max pain $37 limits downside.

!Vol spike from macro event (e.g., Fed) may overwhelm regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread Why now: Heavy put flow and negative gamma favor downside; spot below max pain suggests further decline.	China stimulus announcement could reverse bearish thesis. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (60%).
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $37.00/$38.00 call spread Why now: Spot below max pain and bearish flow suggest capped upside; premium collection.	Upside surprise from China stimulus could blow through short call. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (59%).; long_call: Wide spread (133%).
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 put Why now: Bearish flow and negative gamma support put purchase for downside protection or speculation.	Theta decay if spot stabilizes; China stimulus could cause sharp reversal.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread

Buy $35/$33 put spread to profit from downside with limited loss.

Why this play: Best aligns with bearish thesis, defined risk, and heavy put flow.

Debit: $1.05-$1.28

Max loss: $1.28

BE: $33.72

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% gain; stop loss at full loss. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (60%).

Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 put

Buy $35 put for downside speculation or hedge.

Why this play: Direct play on bearish flow, high upside but higher cost.

Debit: $1.44-$1.75

Max loss: $1.75

BE: $33.25

Mgmt: Set stop loss at 50% premium; hold to expiration.

Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $37.00/$38.00 call spread

Sell $37/$38 call spread to collect premium, expecting capped upside.

Why this play: Small premium collection, but limited upside in bearish scenario.

Credit: $0.02-$0.03

Max loss: $0.97

BE: $37.03

Mgmt: Close if spot exceeds $35.84 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (59%).; long_call: Wide spread (133%).

Income-focused traders with low risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF FXI spot closes below 32.0 support → THEN buy the 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread

IFIF FXI spot touches 35.84 resistance intraday → THEN sell the 2026-07-17 $37.00/$38.00 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF FXI spot closes above 35.84 → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish thesis: enter put spread on support breakdown at 32.0; sell call credit spread on intraday touch of resistance at 35.84. Exit all bearish positions if close above 35.84 invalidates.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.