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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $31.68EOD only

Max Pain

$34.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.78

2.5% from close

Price Gap

+2.32

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias for FXI due to bearish flow, negative dealer gamma ($-64.3M), and spot below max pain ($34). High vol and trending gamma favor downside, but spot near 1w support ($31.31) may slow decline. Thesis is event-specific (weekly max pain pin).

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, -1 spot 5.7% from MP, +0.5 VIX 18 → net 6.5. Supports bearish view.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX ($-64.3M), spot below MP, high vol, trending gamma.
Conflicts: Spot near 1w support ($31.31), DEX long (+117M shares) could buffer declines, max pain pin at $34.

🐻Bearish flow and negative gamma align for downside moves.

📉Spot below max pain ($34) but short-dated puts cheapen as pin nears.

⚠️Gamma flip at $25 far below; no near-term flip risk.

📊High vol and trending gamma suggest sustained directional pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is elevated vs typical, with VIX at 18.4. High vol reflects bearish sentiment and positioning.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma is trending with $-64.3M GEX, amplifying directional moves. No near-term flip (flip ~$25).

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium bearish; put demand dominates. Flow supports downside momentum.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot (~$31.6) below max pain ($34). This creates resistance above and potential support below but bearish bias near-term.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pin on 2026-06-26 at $34 drives event risk. Weekly expiry and bearish positioning make thesis short-lived.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$31.31$31.87

Low 31.31, high 31.87. Bias toward lower end; break below 31.31 opens 30.

Next 2 weeks

$29.23$33.95

Low 29.23, high 33.95. Downside target ~30, with max pain cap at 34.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30); $34 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $31.31/$31.87

Support: $30.00 · $29.23

Resistance: $33.50 · $33.95

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (20.9% below spot)

Structural: Support: $30, $29.23. Resistance: $33.5, $33.95. Max pain pins: $34 (Jun26), $36 (Jun30), $34 (Jul2). Gamma flip ~$25 (far down). EM guardrails: 1w $31.31/$31.87.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-64.3M

DEX: +117.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (20.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$64.3M, DEX +117.0M shares. Negative gamma amplifies moves. Gamma flip ~$25, far below current spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV is elevated relative to VIX (18.4), indicating rich options premium. This supports bearish put strategies but increases cost of hedges.

Term structure: Backwardation likely given event risk near max pain expiry; longer-dated vol cheaper. Watch Jun26 expiry for pin.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads to offset high IV. Alternatively, sell call spreads at resistance ($33.5-$34) for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$85M (net put buying), put/call vol ratio 4.16, strong bearish bias.

Directional prints: 63.7 put 36 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 3.5, vol 33k: heavy put buying or closing. Preferred bearish read. 108.6 put 41 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 4.1, deep ITM put with high IV, likely bearish positioning. 159.7 put 39 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.8, extreme IV, aggressive put activity. Bearish.

Unusual: 139.6 put 38 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 1.6 but IV 139.6% extreme, unusual put premium. 26.5 call 35 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 17, massive OTM call volume vs OI, potentially bullish but contrasts bearish flow. 212.9 put 31 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.2, IV 212.9% with expiry today, unusual high volatility.

Risks & Catalysts

!Reversal toward max pain $34 if bullish catalysts emerge.

!Short squeeze if spot breaks above $32.50.

!Macro shift in China exposure could override technicals.

!Low liquidity in deep OTM strikes may widen spreads.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $31.50/$30.00 put spread Why now: High put/call vol ratio and net put buying suggest sustained downside; spread limits capital at risk.	Spot may bounce from support near $31.31; upside reversal to max pain $34 caps spread loss. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (163%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $31.00 put Why now: Significant net put buying and negative gamma suggest continued downside momentum; long put captures move.	Time decay and potential support bounce at $31.31 limit profitability; premium cost if spot stabilizes. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (117%).
Put diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 put Why now: Elevated near-term IV (max pain pin event) vs back-month; calendar benefits from vol crush and time decay.	Sharp downside move hurts short leg; spot bounce above short put strike causes loss. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Wide spread (72%).
Bearish risk reversal	Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $34.00 call Why now: Put premium heavy; financing via call sale reduces cost while maintaining bearish exposure.	Unlimited upside risk from short call; pin risk near expiration; call sold at low IV. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (130%).

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $31.00 put

Long put on FXI to profit from expected decline below support, backed by bearish flow and high put/call vol ratio.

Why this play: Directly captures sustained downside momentum from heavy put flow and negative dealer gamma.

Debit: $0.24-$0.29

Max loss: $0.29

BE: $30.71

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at invalidation level $33.50; consider taking partial profits near $30. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (117%).

Aggressive traders seeking maximum downside exposure with defined risk.

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 put

Sell near-term put, buy later-dated put to capitalize on volatility term structure and directional bearish view.

Why this play: Exploits elevated near-term IV (max pain pin event) vs back-month; benefits from vol crush and time decay.

Debit: $0.58-$0.71

Max loss: $0.71

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage short leg around expiration; adjust if spot breaks above max pain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Wide spread (72%).

Traders wanting to collect premium while maintaining bearish exposure.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $31.50/$30.00 put spread

Buy $31.50 put, sell $30 put to define risk and profit from downside move to $30 or below.

Why this play: Limits capital at risk while capitalizing on high put/call vol ratio and net put buying.

Debit: $1.35-$1.65

Max loss: $1.65

BE: $29.85

Mgmt: Exit if spot trades above $33.50; hold to expiration near max pain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (163%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk-averse traders seeking defined-risk bearish play with lower cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot breaks below $31.31 (1w support) with volume, then buy $31.50/$30 bear put spread (fxi_001) in the $1.35-$1.65 range. → Buy 2026-07-10 $31.50/$30.00 put spread.

IFIf spot trades below $30 with increasing put flow, then buy 2026-07-10 $31 put (fxi_002) in the $0.24-$0.29 range. → Buy 2026-07-10 $31.00 put.

IFIf spot holds near $31.31 support without a fast breakdown, then sell 2026-07-10 $30 put / buy 2026-08-21 $31 put (fxi_003) for $0.58-$0.71 credit. → Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 put.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot reaches $30 support and shows bounce, then take partial profits on long put (fxi_002) and put diagonal (fxi_003). → Close 50% of fxi_002 and roll fxi_003 short leg up.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot rallies above $33.50 invalidation level, then close all bearish positions. → Exit fxi_001, fxi_002, fxi_003, fxi_004.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias for FXI via heavy put flow, negative dealer gamma ($-64M), and spot below max pain ($34). Key support $30, $29.23; resistance $33.5, $33.95. Prefer bear put spread (fxi_001) and long put (fxi_002) for defined risk. Put diagonal (fxi_003) exploits vol term structure. Invalidation level $33.50. Event-specific max pain pin may slow decline but holds downside.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.