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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $32.36EOD only
Max Pain
$34.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.07
3.3% from close
Price Gap
+1.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by heavy put flow, negative dealer gamma ($-51.2M), and spot 6.8% below max pain ($34). High vol and trending gamma support downside momentum, but extreme distance from MP poses mean-reversion risk.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 6.5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Adjusted score ~8.0, reflecting strong bearish signals with minor reversion risk.
Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, spot below MP, high vol regime
Conflicts: Spot far from MP (6.8%), potential mean reversion, large distance to gamma flip ($25)
📉Heavy put flow and -$51.2M GEX signal dealer hedging for downside
⚠️Spot 6.8% below MP; reversion could squeeze short gamma
🔻Gamma flip at $25 (21% below) provides distant downside target

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime with VIX 19; IV likely elevated, supporting option selling.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Dealers net short gamma (-$51.2M) in trending regime; negative gamma amplifies moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow with net put premium; put/call skewed to puts.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot well below MP ($34) by 6.8%, indicating bearish bias and potential pin resistance.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural bearish flow and negative gamma support sustained downside over weeks, not a single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$30.90$32.46
Test 30.9 support; resistance at 32.46
Next 1 week
$30.71$32.66
Range 30.71-32.66; bias to lower end
Next 2 weeks
$30.14$33.23
Down to 30.14 support; gamma flip far below

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30); $34 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $30.90/$32.46; 1w $30.71/$32.66
Support: $30.14 · $30.00
Resistance: $33.23 · $34.00
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (21.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $34 (Jun26), $36 (Jun30), $34 (Jul02). Support: 30.14, 30.0. Resistance: 33.23, 34.0. Gamma flip ~$25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-51.2M

DEX: +105.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (21.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$51.2M, long delta +105.6M shares; gamma flip ~$25 (21% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is likely rich vs VIX (19) given high vol regime; premiums favor sellers.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated near term due to negative gamma and event (max pain pins); longer-dated vol normal.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts at 30 support or buying cheap calls for hedge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $145M with put/call volume ratio 2.71, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 47.1 call 33 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 162.7; 54,679 vol vs 336 OI, likely new long positions. Buying suggests bullish bet, but note bearish context. 47 put 31 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 48.8; 54,654 vol vs 1,121 OI, likely new put purchases. Bearish directional bet. 136.6 put 37 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 23,780, OI 6,266, IV 136.6% extreme. Heavy put buying for near-term downside protection.

Unusual: 97.8 put 42 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 4.4, IV 97.8% elevated; 21,860 vol vs 5,000 OI, likely opening new bearish positions. 83.2 put 41 ITM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 4.1, IV 83.2%; 4,440 vol vs 1,073 OI, moderate new put activity. 139.5 put 39 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.8, IV 139.5% extreme; 4,460 vol vs 1,165 OI, near-term downside hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Mean reversion to MP ($34) if sentiment shifts
!Gamma squeeze on sharp rally through dealer short gamma
!Unexpected China policy catalyst reversing bearish flow

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $33.00/$31.00 put spread
Why now: Heavy put flow and negative dealer gamma support further decline; spread defines risk.
Short strike caps profit; rally above 33 loses. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (69%).; short_put: Wide spread (112%).
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 put
Why now: Vol elevated, put flow heavy, direct downside hedge.
Theta decay if no move; expensive premium.
Put diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put / buy 2026-07-31 $32.00 put
Why now: IV term structure steep; near-term puts inflated.
Gap risk if spot drops hard immediately. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Wide spread (161%).
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $34.00/$43.00 call spread
Why now: 35 call OI huge; sell premium to cap upside.
Short call naked risk if surged; limited width. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Bearish risk reversalModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $34.00 call
Why now: Heavy put demand and call supply; take credit.
Unlimited upside risk on short call; assignment risk.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put $32
Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 put
Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 put to profit from further decline.
Why this play: Direct downside hedge with high liquidity, aligns with heavy put flow and negative gamma.
Debit: $0.73-$0.90
Max loss: $0.90
BE: $31.10
Mgmt: Monitor spot relative to $33.23 invalidation; exit if breached or vol collapses.
Traders seeking pure bearish exposure with defined risk.
#2
Bear Put Spread $33/$31
Buy 2026-07-17 $33.00/$31.00 put spread
Buy $33 put, sell $31 put for net debit, capping loss if rebound.
Why this play: Defined risk bearish play, leverages negative gamma and put flow.
Debit: $1.02-$1.25
Max loss: $1.25
BE: $31.75
Mgmt: Roll or close if spot rises above $33.23; take profit near target. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (69%).; short_put: Wide spread (112%).
Risk-conscious traders wanting limited downside and defined payoff.
#3
Bearish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $34.00 call
Buy $32 put, sell $34 call, net credit if spot stays below $34.
Why this play: Takes credit from call supply while buying puts; liquid and directional.
Debit: $0.63-$0.76
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $34.00
Mgmt: Monitor for gamma squeeze; adjust if spot nears $34.
Traders willing to cap upside for premium and downside hedge.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot breaks below 30.14 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $32 put (FI_2) for downside continuation
IFIf spot rallies to 33.23 resistance → Enter $33/$31 bear put spread (FI_1) to sell bounce
IFIf spot remains below $34 → Initiate bearish risk reversal (FI_5) to collect credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot closes above 33.23 → Exit all bearish positions as invalidation

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias from heavy put flow and negative dealer gamma; spot 6.8% below max pain $34. Favor defined-risk bearish plays near resistance 33.23, but beware mean-reversion if support 30.14 holds.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.