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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.29EOD only

Max Pain

$38.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.94

2.6% from close

Price Gap

+2.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by negative gamma (-306.7M), bearish flow, and spot below max pain. Expect drift toward 34.02 support over 2 weeks, but guarded against gamma flip risk near 32.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; GEX/flow aligned +2; spot distance from MP -1; VIX 16 +1

Supports: Negative gamma, bearish flow, VIX > 16
Conflicts: Spot far from MP, positive dealer delta

📉Negative gamma -306.7M amplifies downside.

🐻Bearish put flow dominance.

⚠️Spot 7.6% below max pain; weak pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

VIX 16.2, IV normal; measured moves expected.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma -306.7M; trending as dealers sell strength.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish net flow; puts dominate premium.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($38); drag from put OI.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow and negative gamma align for sustained downside.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$34.51$35.72

Test support 34.51; negative gamma may accelerate.

Next 2 weeks

$34.02$36.21

Drift to 34.02; resistance at 36.21.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $38 (2026-06-18); $36 (2026-06-26); $37 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $34.51/$35.72

Support: $34.02 · $34.00 · $32.00

Resistance: $36.21 · $37.00 · $38.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (8.9% below spot)

Structural: Support: 34.02 (2w low), 34.00 (round), gamma flip ~32. Resistance: 36.21 (2w high), 37-38 (max pain).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-306.7M

DEX: +146.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (8.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma -306.7M, long delta +146.8M shares; gamma flip at ~32. Negative gamma amplifies moves away from flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV moderately elevated vs VIX, reflecting China risk.

Term structure: Backwardated near Jun18/26 expiries.

Skew: Put skew steep; bearish put spreads attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $2.99M with put/call volume ratio 1.35, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 28.7 put 34 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 7.5x; likely bought as bearish bet given high volume and bearish flow; preferred read: bought. 78.2 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.5x with 4064 vol vs 1616 OI; likely bought for downside protection or speculation; preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 28.7 put 34 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 7.5x, highest ratio; extreme bearish positioning. 78.2 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.5x with massive volume 4064; notable downside interest. 114.5 call 29 ITM 2026-06-18 — Extreme IV 114.5%; likely sold amid high volatility, bearish context.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside China stimulus surprise.

!Gamma squeeze if spot reverses toward flip.

!Time decay on puts if move stalls.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $34.00/$32.00 put spread Why now: Bear put spread captures downside with defined risk, mitigates gamma flip risk near 32.	Time decay if move stalls; upside stimulus surprise.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $34.00 put Why now: Long put offers convex downside hedge with limited risk; fits bearish bias.	Time decay if move stalls; upside stimulus surprise.
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $35.00/$33.50 put spread Why now: Negative gamma, bearish flow; spread caps risk.	Upside stimulus surprise; time decay if move stalls. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (76%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-10 $35.00 put Why now: Negative gamma, bearish flow; puts capture downside convexity.	Time decay if move stalls; upside stimulus risk. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (76%).
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $40.00/$40.50 call spread Why now: Spot below max pain, bearish flow; credit spread caps loss on stimulus.	Upside gamma flip risk; capped loss but tail risk. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread July 17

Buy 2026-07-17 $34.00/$32.00 put spread

Captures bearish move to support with defined risk.

Why this play: Best risk-defined downside play with liquidity; mitigates gamma flip risk near 32.

Debit: $0.29-$0.36

Max loss: $0.36

BE: $33.64

Mgmt: Manage as spot approaches 32; exit if invalidation at 36.21.

Traders seeking defined risk bearish bet.

Long Put July 17

Buy 2026-07-17 $34.00 put

Pure bearish exposure with limited loss.

Why this play: Convex downside hedge with high max gain; liquid and direct.

Debit: $0.37-$0.46

Max loss: $0.46

BE: $33.54

Mgmt: Monitor gamma; close if spot recovers above invalidation.

Traders wanting high convexity and unlimited upside potential.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFFXI spot breaks below $34.02 (2-week support) → Buy 2026-07-17 $34.00/$32.00 bear put spread at $0.29-$0.36

Adjustment Triggers

ADJFXI spot approaches $32.00 (gamma flip zone) → Manage bear put spread: take profits or roll; for long put, tighten stop or take partial profits

Exit Triggers

EXITFXI spot rises above $36.21 (invalidation level) → Close bear put spread or long put for a loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on FXI with spot below max pain and negative gamma. Prefer July 17 bear put spread for defined risk. Entry near 34.02 support break, invalidation above 36.21. Monitor gamma flip at 32 for adjustments.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.