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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $32.83EOD only

Max Pain

$34.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.53

4.7% from close

Price Gap

+1.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias due to bearish flow, dealer short gamma, and spot below Max Pain. Continued downside likely toward support at $31.42-$30.00 over multi-week horizon.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5 adjusted: +2 GEX/flow alignment, -0.5 spot 4.8% from MP, +0.5 VIX 19. Net 7/10 reflects strong agreement between flow, gamma, and spot position.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, spot below MP, resistance at $33.3-$34.
Conflicts: Positive DEX (+104M shares), VIX not elevated, potential squeeze toward max pain pins.

🔻Bearish flow & -GEX align for continued downside

📉Spot 4.8% below MP, room to test support $31.42

⚠️Positive DEX provides floor; watch for bounce at support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol; IV near typical range, slightly elevated on put side.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma with negative GEX (-$76.7M) amplifying bearish moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow; net put premium with elevated P/C ratio.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below Max Pain ($34) by ~4.8%, reducing pin risk but favoring further decay.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained bearish flow and dealer short gamma support a multi-week downward drift; key support at $31.42, with structural resistance at $33.3.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$31.29$33.43

Resistance $33.43, support $31.29. Expect drift toward lower end.

Next 1 week

$31.30$33.42

Range $31.30-$33.42. Bias to test support with potential for acceleration.

Next 2 weeks

$31.42$33.30

Key support $31.42; break opens $30. Resistance at $33.3.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30); $34 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $31.29/$33.43; 1w $31.30/$33.42

Support: $31.42 · $30.00

Resistance: $33.30 · $34.00

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (22.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: 31.42, 30.0; Resistance: 33.3, 34.0; Max Pain: $34 (Jun26), $36 (Jun30), $34 (Jul2); EM guardrails: 2d $31.29/$33.43, 1w $31.30/$33.42.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-76.7M

DEX: +104.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,001 (22.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer short gamma (-$76.7M GEX) with positive DEX (+104.3M shares). Gamma flip at ~$25 far below spot, so low flip risk. Short gamma amplifies moves, favoring trend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX, slightly elevated for downside puts, indicating bearish premium.

Term structure: Term structure flat to slightly backwardated near term; no event kinks noted.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no actionable vol structure opportunity currently.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$46.3M, put/call vol ratio 2.97, bearish.

Directional prints: 69.1 put 40 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 9776 vs OI 6243, high put volume, bearish. Likely bought. 58.1 put 41 ITM 2026-09-18 — Vol 8169 vs OI 5446, significant put activity, bearish. Likely bought.

Unusual: 41.8 put 38 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.5 (1868/741), unusual put buying. 74.6 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.1 (1606/761), aggressive put buying. 54.2 put 43 ITM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.0 (3000/1500), notable put accumulation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot rally toward max pain ($34) could squeeze shorts.

!VIX spike may invert short gamma benefit and fuel upside.

!Positive DEX provides underlying support, slowing downside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $31.00/$29.00 put spread Why now: Capped risk with 2.5-point wide vertical; profits on decline.	Upside beyond short leg or time decay if spot stalls. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (169%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $34.50/$35.50 call spread Why now: Defined-risk credit capture near high-volume put wall.	Sharp rally above short leg triggers loss. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Volume below 5.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-24 $31.00 put Why now: Uncapped downside with limited capital outlay; decay offset by move.	Time decay if decline delayed or spot rallies. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (169%).

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $31.00/$29.00 put spread

Captures downside with limited capital at risk.

Why this play: Best risk/reward with defined risk and 7:1 potential payout.

Debit: $0.20-$0.25

Max loss: $0.25

BE: $30.75

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $33.30 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (169%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk-conscious bearish traders.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $34.50/$35.50 call spread

Collects premium with capped risk from call selling.

Why this play: Defined-risk credit play near resistance, high probability.

Credit: $0.18-$0.22

Max loss: $0.78

BE: $34.72

Mgmt: Buy back if spot rises above $33.30 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Volume below 5.

Income-focused bearish traders.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-24 $31.00 put

Unlimited profit potential if sharp decline occurs.

Why this play: Uncapped downside for aggressive traders.

Debit: $0.29-$0.36

Max loss: $0.36

BE: $30.64

Mgmt: Set stop loss; monitor time decay. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (169%).

Aggressive directional traders expecting sharp drop.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $31.42 support. → Buy FXI 2026-07-24 $31.00/$29.00 put spread (FXI_BEAR_PUT_1) at 0.20-0.25 debit.

IFSpot rallies to $33.30 resistance but stays below. → Sell FXI 2026-07-24 $34.50/$35.50 call spread (FXI_CALL_CREDIT_1) for 0.18-0.22 credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $33.30 invalidation. → Close all FXI bearish positions (put spread, call credit, long put).

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with support at $31.42/$30. Resistance at $33.30 with dealer short gamma. Favor bear put spread or call credit spread for defined risk. Exit if spot reclaims $33.30.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.