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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $33.30EOD only

Max Pain

$35.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.17

9.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias: spot below max pain $37, bearish flow, high negative gamma ($-241.5M) with flip near $32. High vol (VIX 16.4) supports trending toward lower range.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 10% below MP; +1 VIX 16.4 → net 7.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, spot below MP, VIX elevated.
Conflicts: Broader market up (SPY/QQQ), possibility of pinning to $37 MP.

📉Spot below $37 MP with bearish flow

⚠️Gamma flip ~$32 (put OI concentration) could accelerate selloff

📊VIX 16.4 supports trending vol, not mean reversion

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: VIX 16.4 above normal for FXI; wide range ($30-$36) supports trending.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma: $-241.5M negative GEX, gamma flip at ~$32 (3.9% below spot), potential for accelerated move.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow: net premium negative, high put/call ratio, consistent with put buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP $37 by ~10%, usually bullish pinning but bearish forces dominate.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural negative gamma and bearish flow suggest sustained downside through next OPEX; no single event catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$30.13$36.47

Range $30.13-$36.47; bias lower end due to gamma flip and below MP.

Next 2 weeks

$29.64$36.95

Range $29.64-$36.95; support $29.64, resistance $36.95; trend negative.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-06-18); $35 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 1w $30.13/$36.47

Support: $32.00 · $29.64

Resistance: $36.95

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (3.9% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $37 near term; support $32 (gamma flip) and $29.64 (2w low); resistance $36.95.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-241.5M

DEX: +149.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (3.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $-241.5M negative; gamma flip at ~$32 based on put OI (125k). Dealers short gamma, positioning for downside acceleration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV likely rich vs VIX given EM risk and negative gamma; elevated vol supports directional trending.

Term structure: Term structure likely upward sloping with kinks near monthly OPEX; front-end elevated from gamma flipping.

Skew: Skew heavily tilted to puts; consider put verticals if bearish or call spreads if mean reversion expected.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$41.5M, put/call vol ratio 2.55, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 31.1 put 30 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/oi 5.8 suggests new put buying, bearish.

Unusual: 73.6 call 34 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/oi 26.7, extreme activity relative to OI, potential opening or hedge. 500 put 41 ITM 2026-06-18 — Expiration day high volume (2.5x OI) and extreme IV, likely closing deep ITM puts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bullish reversal if spot rises above $37 MP

!Positive broader market (SPY/QQQ up) could lift FXI

!Gamma flip at $32 acts as support; possible bounce from that level

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow, high put OI at 35, negative gamma zone	Bullish reversal if spot > 37 or bounce at 32 gamma flip Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (159%).
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 put Why now: Unusual put buying, high VIX supports trending lower	Time decay and implied volatility contraction
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $36.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: High negative GEX at 37 call, bearish bias favors premium decay	Sharp rally above 37.5 breaks spread Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (161%).

Top Plays

Buy Put for Bearish Trend

Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 put

Direct bearish play targeting downside with high liquidity

Why this play: Strongest bearish signal with unusual put buying and high VIX support

Debit: $1.63-$1.99

Max loss: $1.99

BE: $33.01

Mgmt: Exit on invalidation above 36.95 or target profit at 50% gain

Aggressive traders expecting sustained decline

Bear Put Spread for Defined Risk

Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread

Bearish spread with max loss capped at premium

Why this play: Capitalizes on bearish flow with limited loss, but lower liquidity

Debit: $0.98-$1.19

Max loss: $1.19

BE: $33.81

Mgmt: Set stop at 36.95; consider early close if spot drops below 33 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (159%).

Risk-conscious traders seeking defined risk

Sell Call Spread for Premium Decay

Sell 2026-07-17 $36.00/$40.00 call spread

Collects premium from bearish bias with wide invalidation

Why this play: Bearish theta play but lower probability and less liquidity

Credit: $0.11-$0.14

Max loss: $3.86

BE: $36.14

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; close if spot approaches 36 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (161%).

Income-focused traders with bearish view

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot reaches 36.95 resistance → Buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 put at market within 1.63-1.99 (long put)

IFSpot breaks below 32.00 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $35/$33 bear put spread at market within 0.98-1.19

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above 36.95 → Exit all bearish positions: close long put, buy back call spread, etc.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, resistance 36.95, support 32 (gamma flip). Enter on touch of resistance or breakdown below 32. Exit on close above 36.95. Prioritize long put for highest conviction; use spreads for defined risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.