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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.11EOD only

Max Pain

$38.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.60

1.7% from close

Price Gap

+2.89

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

FXI is positioned for a bullish bounce from below max pain, supported by negative dealer gamma that amplifies upside. Low VIX and positive flow provide tailwinds, but broad market weakness and spot 6.6% below $37 MP cap near-term upside. Thesis favors drift toward $35.73 resistance in 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 6.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16 low. Net 7.

Supports: Negative gamma (trending regime), positive dealer delta, low VIX, flow aligned
Conflicts: Spot below max pain, broad market down, gamma flip at $32 (8% below spot)

📉Dealers short gamma $383M – trending regime amplifies moves

📊Spot 6.6% below $37 MP – large magnet but needs catalyst

⚠️Broad market weak – SPY -0.6%, QQQ -1.9% – headwind

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal – IV within typical range; VIX 16 suggests stable vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending – dealers short gamma ($383M GEX) amplifies directional moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed – net premium positive with bullish dealer delta (141M shares).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below – spot ~$34.56 is 6.6% below $37 MP, creating magnetic pull but resistance.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma, spot below MP, and low VIX favor a multi-week grind higher toward $35.73 and potentially $37 MP over multiple expiries.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$34.21$34.92

Range $34.21-$34.92; breakout above $34.92 targets $35.73.

Next 1 week

$33.56$35.57

Range $33.56-$35.57; core drift to resistance at $35.57.

Next 2 weeks

$33.39$35.73

Range $33.39-$35.73; max pain pull at $37, first target $35.73.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-06-18); $36 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $34.21/$34.92; 1w $33.56/$35.57

Support: $34.00 · $33.39 · $32.00

Resistance: $35.73 · $37.00 · $38.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.4% below spot)

Structural: Support: 34.0, 33.39, 32.0 (gamma flip). Resistance: 35.73, 37.0, 38.0. EM Guardrails: 2d $34.21/$34.92; 1w $33.56/$35.57. Gamma flip at ~$32 based on put OI.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-383.1M

DEX: +141.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma $383M and long delta +141M shares. Net short gamma implies trending amplification; positive delta indicates net long equity. Gamma flip at ~$32 (7.4% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV is in line with VIX (16.4) given normal vol regime, slightly elevated near expiries due to event risk.

Term structure: Near flat to slightly backwardated front (Jun18), contango into later expiries with higher vol at $36-37 strikes.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call overwrite or risk reversal selling puts. Buying calls for gamma squeeze into MP may be attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $5.5M, bearish.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 23.4 put 34 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.8, ITM put. Aggressive buying. Bearish. 73.6 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.8, ITM put, high IV. Tail risk hedge or bearish. Bought. Bearish. 26.1 call 36 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.4, OTM call, large volume. Bullish or covering. Neutral.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market weakness could cap upside

!Spot distance from MP may require catalyst

!Negative gamma could reverse if spot breaks below $33.56

!VIX spike hurts long vol positions

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $35.50/$37.00 call spread Why now: Negative dealer gamma amplifies upside; low VIX supports premium. Bull call spread capitalizes on drift with defined risk.	Broad market weakness could cap upside; time decay if move doesn't materialize quickly. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (173%).; short_call: Wide spread (163%).
Put credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $33.50/$30.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread benefits from positive flow and dealer gamma; limited downside if broad market weakness but defined risk.	Broad market selloff could push through short put; defined loss but risk of assignment near expiration. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $35.50/$37.00 call spread

Buys upside exposure with defined risk, leveraging low VIX and positive flow for a bounce toward $35.73.

Why this play: Directly capitalizes on bullish drift and negative dealer gamma, with better risk/reward than the put credit spread.

Credit: $0.01-$0.01

Max loss: N/A

BE: $35.50

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $34 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (173%).; short_call: Wide spread (163%).

Traders seeking asymmetric upside with capped risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $33.50/$30.00 put spread

Sells downside protection to profit from limited downside, but upside is capped by the short put strike.

Why this play: Collects premium while benefiting from positive flow, but offers lower max gain and worse risk/reward versus the bull call.

Credit: $0.15-$0.19

Max loss: $3.31

BE: $33.31

Mgmt: Monitor for breakeven; consider early close if spot approaches $34. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Traders preferring premium collection with defined risk in a range-bound scenario.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $34 support and RSI > 50 → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $35.50/$37.00 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $34.00 → THEN exit bull call spread

Tactical Summary

FXI bullish drift toward $35.73 in 1-2 weeks. Negative dealer gamma amplifies upside. Bull call spread as primary play with defined risk. Invalidation at $34.0. Put credit spread secondary if spot approaches $34, but lower risk/reward.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.