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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.29EOD only

Max Pain

$38.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.94

2.6% from close

Price Gap

+2.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as bearish flow and negative gamma pressure outweigh normal vol. Spot at $35 resistance, vulnerable to pullback toward $34 gamma flip.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 from regime, +1 GEX/flow weak alignment, +1 spot near MP, +0.5 from VIX at 19.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, spot at resistance, elevated VIX.
Conflicts: Normal vol regime, long dealer delta (+146.8M shares) may buffer downside.

📉Bearish flow and -$138.9M GEX suggest downward pressure

📌Spot near $35 max pain for 06/12, pin likely

⚠️Gamma flip at $34 key support; break could accelerate

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal; VIX at 19.44, FXI IV likely similar, no vol shock.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma trending negative at -$138.9M; flip at $34 (2.6% below spot).

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish premium flow, net selling pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $35, within 0.3% of max pain, pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Combination of bearish flow, negative gamma, and spot at resistance suggests multi-week pressure toward lower end of range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$34.51$35.31

Spot at range top; resistance at $35.

Next 1 week

$34.00$35.82

Gamma flip at $34 could be tested.

Next 2 weeks

$33.64$36.18

Lower bound $33.64 in play if support breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-06-12); $38 (2026-06-18); $36 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $34.51/$35.31; 1w $34.00/$35.82

Support: $34.00 · $33.64 · $32.00

Resistance: $35.00 · $36.18 · $37.00

Gamma flip: ~$34.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,084 (2.6% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $35 (06/12), $38 (06/18), $36 (06/26). Support at $34 (gamma flip), $33.64. Resistance at $35, $36.18.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-138.9M

DEX: +146.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$34 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,084 (2.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Negative gamma -$138.9M; gamma flip near $34. Dealers hedged long delta (+146.8M shares) but short gamma may force selling on weakness.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV likely in line with VIX ~19.4, no relative cheapness.

Term structure: Term structure flat; no event kinks nearby.

Skew: Put skew elevated reflecting bearish sentiment; no clear vol arb.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of $103,625 and put/call volume ratio 1.34 indicate bearish flow.

Directional prints: 49.5 call 31 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 38.6; likely bought calls for upside, net bullish. 113.3 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.5 with high IV; likely bought puts for downside, bearish.

Unusual: 56.3 put 35.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 56.6; extremely high relative put volume, bearish. 49.5 call 31 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 38.6; high call volume, bullish tilt. 113.3 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.5 with extreme IV 113%; unusual put activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip break below $34 could trigger rapid sell-off

!Bearish flow may intensify on China policy headlines

!Elevated VIX reduces risk appetite

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $35.00/$32.50 put spread Why now: Debit spread profits from downside, defined risk; 21-36 DTE.	Loss if FXI rallies above breakeven; max loss = net debit. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (58%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $36.50/$38.00 call spread Why now: Sell call spread above price, collect premium, defined risk; 21-36 DTE.	Loss if FXI rallies above upper strike; max loss = spread width minus credit. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Weak	Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put Why now: Long put captures downside volatility, limited risk; 29-36 DTE.	Theta decay if move slow; max loss = premium paid. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $35.00/$32.50 put spread

Buy $35/$32.5 put spread to profit from downside toward $34 gamma flip.

Why this play: Best defined-risk bearish play with 1:2 risk/reward; aligns with bearish flow and gamma flip risk.

Debit: $0.66-$0.81

Max loss: $0.81

BE: $34.19

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot breaks above $35 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (58%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking capped risk with high probability of profit.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put

Buy $32.5 put for leveraged downside exposure.

Why this play: Higher max gain but unlimited risk; suitable for aggressive bearish view despite lower liquidity.

Debit: $0.43-$0.53

Max loss: $0.53

BE: $31.97

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 100% premium if spot holds above $35. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp sell-off.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $36.50/$38.00 call spread

Sell $36.5/$38 call spread to collect small premium on capped upside.

Why this play: Low premium and narrow edge; less attractive than other bearish plays.

Credit: $0.03-$0.03

Max loss: $1.47

BE: $36.53

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit or if spot nears $36.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Conservative income seekers with neutral-bearish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot breaks below $34 (gamma flip) with volume → Enter fxi_bear_put_spread_1: buy 2026-07-02 $35/$32.5 put spread

IFIf spot holds above $35 resistance → Avoid new bearish entries; consider exiting existing positions

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot reaches $33.64 support and bounces → Take 50% profit on fxi_bear_put_spread_1; trail stop on remaining

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $35 invalidation → Close fxi_bear_put_spread_1 and fxi_long_put_1 immediately

EXITIf spot drops to $32 or below → Take full profit on all bearish plays

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to bearish flow and negative gamma. Key level $34 gamma flip; break below targets $33.64. Top play: bear put spread (rank 1) for defined risk. Long put (rank 2) for aggressive. Call credit spread (rank 3) low premium. Manage risk at $35 invalidation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.