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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $34.75EOD only
Max Pain
$35.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.83
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by dealer short gamma and persistent put flow, with spot at max pain. Expect drift toward lower range bounds, but pin risk near $35 limits near-term breakdown. Confidence 8.5.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19.
Supports: Negative dealer gamma, bearish flow, resistance at $35.
Conflicts: Spot at max pain $35, long delta dealer exposure.
📉-$133M GEX: dealers short gamma, amplifying downside
🎯Spot at max pain $35; op-ex pin could hold near-term
📊Bearish flow with net negative premium; puts dominant

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Vol normal at 20 IV, inline with VIX 19, no stress.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with -$133M GEX, strong dealer short gamma positioning.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow with net negative premium, elevated put activity.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near max pain $35, pinning likely ahead of op-ex.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and bearish flow support sustained downside, but spot at MP may cap near-term.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$33.64$35.72
Test lower bound $33.64 into op-ex.
Next 2 weeks
$33.22$36.15
Break support $33.22 if flow persists.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-06-12); $38 (2026-06-18); $36 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $33.64/$35.72
Support: $34.00 · $33.22 · $32.00
Resistance: $35.00 · $36.15 · $37.00
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.7% below spot)
Structural: Support 34.0, 33.22, 32.0; Resistance 35.0, 36.15, 37.0; Gamma flip ~32.0.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-133.0M

DEX: +137.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: -$133M GEX (bearish), +137M DEX (bullish delta). Net: short gamma amplifies moves, but long delta provides buffer; bias bearish with risk of sharp rallies if spot rises.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV ~20, at VIX 19, fairly priced; no premium for tail risk.

Term structure: Flat to slightly downward sloping post-op-ex events; no kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads for defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$1.85M, bearish with puts 1.39x calls by volume, OI ratio 0.87 still favors calls.

Directional prints: 104.6 put 41 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 1.9, IV 104.6%. Deep ITM put, likely bought as bearish hedge. Preferred: put buy. 30.9 call 36 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 4.0, IV 30.9%. Long-dated call, likely bought for bullish speculation. Preferred: call buy.

Unusual: 30.9 call 36 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 4.0, IV 30.9%. Extreme volume vs OI, likely bought. 33.9 put 35 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 3.2, IV 33.9%. High vol relative to OI, likely bought. 35.1 put 35 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.2, IV 35.1%. Another high vol print, likely bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Max pain pin at $35 could stall selling.
!VIX spike risk.
!China policy tail risk could reverse flow.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $34.00/$33.00 put wing and $35.00/$36.00 call wing
Why now: Dealer short gamma and persistent put flow suggest lower drift; max pain at $35 caps near-term downside. Iron condor collects premium with limited risk.
Max loss if FXI breaks 34 or 38; pin risk at $35 may stall put premium. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (109%).; short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (60%).
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $34.00/$33.50 put spread
Why now: Bear put spread profits from moderate decline while limiting risk from pin action at $35
Pin risk at $35 may prevent full payoff; max loss limited to net debit Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (154%).; short_put: Wide spread (196%).
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $35.00/$36.00 call spread
Why now: Call credit spread profits if FXI stays below short strike, consistent with bearish drift
Upside breakout past short call strike causes loss; max loss defined by spread width Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (140%).
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-02 $34.00 put
Why now: Long put provides convexity to downside move with limited upfront premium
Time decay if price stagnates near $35; full loss of premium if upside Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (154%).

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $34.00/$33.50 put spread
Buy $34/$33.50 put spread, benefits from downward move while capping loss.
Why this play: Profits from moderate decline with limited risk, aligning with bearish drift and pin risk at $35.
Credit: $0.01-$0.01
Max loss: N/A
BE: $34.00
Mgmt: Exit if FXI breaks above $35 or profit target reached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (154%).; short_put: Wide spread (196%).
Traders expecting gradual decline, seeking defined risk.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $35.00/$36.00 call spread
Sell $35/$36 call spread, collects premium with upside capped.
Why this play: Profits if FXI stays below $35, consistent with bearish drift and max pain pin.
Credit: $0.32-$0.39
Max loss: $0.61
BE: $35.39
Mgmt: Close if FXI rallies above $35 or time decay near expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (140%).
Traders favoring premium collection with bearish view.
#3
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-02 $34.00 put
Buy $34 put, gains from downward movement beyond breakeven.
Why this play: Provides convex downside exposure with limited premium, suitable for sharp declines.
Debit: $0.51-$0.62
Max loss: $0.62
BE: $33.38
Mgmt: Monitor delta; consider rolling if near expiry or volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (154%).
Traders expecting accelerated sell-off or hedging.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFFXI trades below $34.00 support → Buy 2026-07-02 $34/$33.50 bear put spread (fxi-bear-put-1) for defined risk decline.
IFFXI stays below $35.00 with bearish drift → Sell 2026-07-02 $35/$36 call credit spread (fxi-call-credit-1) to collect premium.
Exit Triggers
EXITFXI rallies above $35.00 invalidation level → Exit all bearish positions: bear put spread, call credit spread, and long put (if entered).

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias driven by dealer short gamma and persistent put flow; max pain at $35 limits near-term downside. Key resistance at $35; supports at $34, $33.22, $32. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk or call credit spread for premium collection. Exit above $35. Confidence 8.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.