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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.47EOD only

Max Pain

$35.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.30

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-0.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 4, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

FXI faces bearish dealer gamma and flow, with spot at max pain for weekly expiry. Key support at $34 and $33.57. Expect drift lower as negative gamma amplifies moves. Near-term pinning around $35 possible, but structural bias favors downside toward $33.57-$32.00 over two weeks.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

GEX/flow alignment (+2), spot near MP (+1), VIX 22 moderate (+0.5) drove base 5 to 8.5.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, trending regime.
Conflicts: Spot near max pain, potential pinning; positive DEX may slow downside.

🔻GEX -$87M amplifies downside moves

📍Spot at $35 max pain for 06/05 expiry

⚠️Gamma flip at $32 support zone

📉Bearish net flow all week

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol normal (IV ~20-25% range), not elevated despite market selloff.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma -$87M, trending conditions as spot moves away from large put OI below; gamma flip at $32.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish premium flow; P/C ratio elevated indicating hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $35, near max pain for current expiry; pinning possible.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma and bearish flow suggest continued drift lower; key support at $34, $33.57.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$33.92$35.58

Support at $34, resistance at $35.58.

Next 2 weeks

$33.57$35.93

Support at $33.57, resistance at $35.93.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-06-05); $35 (2026-06-12); $38 (2026-06-18)

EM guardrails: 1w $33.92/$35.58

Support: $34.00 · $33.57 · $32.00

Resistance: $35.00 · $35.93 · $37.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.9% below spot)

Structural: Support: 34.0, 33.57, 32.0; Resistance: 35.0, 35.93, 37.0; Gamma flip ~$32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-87.0M

DEX: +147.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$87M, DEX +147.5M shares; gamma flip at ~$32 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~25% vs VIX 21.5%, slightly cheap given China-specific risks.

Term structure: Backwardation due to near-term event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts if stabilization occurs.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium -$8.24M, P/C vol ratio 1.44: bearish flow.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 38 put 32 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol 5000 vs OI 1705 (ratio 2.9); new positioning. Bearish if bought, IV 38% shows downside demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!China policy surprise

!US tariff escalation

!VIX spike above 25

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $32.50/$31.50 put spread Why now: Bearish order flow, put-heavy, max pain near $35, high put OI acts as magnet.	China stimulus reversal could spike upside; limited loss defined. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put Why now: Negative dealer gamma amplifies moves; high put IV still affordable.	Theta decay if drift slow; need timing. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-06-26 $37.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: Max pain near $35, heavy put OI limits upside, collect premium.	Upside surprise from China policy could break above $36. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (138%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $32.50/$31.50 put spread

Buy $32.50/$31.50 put spread to profit from downside with limited loss.

Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with bearish flow and negative gamma.

Debit: $0.09-$0.11

Max loss: $0.11

BE: $32.39

Mgmt: Target 50% gain; exit if spot > $35. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking balanced risk/reward on bearish view.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-10 $32.50 put

Buy $32.50 put to capture amplified moves from negative gamma.

Why this play: Unlimited upside if thesis accelerates, low IV entry.

Debit: $0.18-$0.22

Max loss: $0.22

BE: $32.28

Mgmt: Scale out 50% at 2x; hold rest for max pain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp decline.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $37.00/$40.00 call spread

Sell $37/$40 call spread to profit from limited upside.

Why this play: Contrarian play on capped upside, collects premium.

Credit: $0.09-$0.11

Max loss: $2.89

BE: $37.11

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; roll up if spot nears $37. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (138%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders with mild bearish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot < $34.00 → BUY 2026-07-02 $32.50/$31.50 put spread

IFIF spot < $33.57 → BUY 2026-07-10 $32.50 put

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot > $35.00 → CLOSE all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; spot pinned near $35 max pain, negative gamma favors downside. Key support $34/$33.57/$32. Use bear put spread or long put on breaks below $34/$33.57. Exit if spot reclaims $35. Call credit spread if spot stays below $35.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.