FXI
iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.54EOD onlyThis page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
FXI has a short-term bullish outlook as spot trades above max pain ($35) with trending gamma and low VIX (15.4). Negative dealer gamma (-$89.5M) supports larger moves, while DEX long (+134M shares) adds positive delta. Price range leans higher toward $36.79 in 1-week, but mixed flow and normal vol suggest cautious upside.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, normal vol, resistance at $36.79, gamma flip near $32
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-89.5M
DEX: +134.0M shares
Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (9.8% below spot))
NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma ($-89.5M GEX) with flip near $32, profiting from volatility. DEX long +134M shares adds bullish delta, but short gamma exacerbates moves.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: FXI IV near VIX levels (~15), neither rich nor cheap. No premium to sell; vol may expand on catalyst.
Term structure: Term structure flat to slightly contango, no major event kinks. Front-month expiry shows normal decay.
Skew: Skew relatively flat; no extreme put/call premium. Opportunity: calendar spreads to capture time decay in normal vol.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net put premium $800k from large Jan 2027 34 put (hedge), while directional call buying dominates; volume P/C 1.03, OI ratio 0.88 calls.
Directional prints: 29.4 call 41 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 103.8; likely bought new positions; bullish on FXI recovery above $41. 30 call 41 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol/OI 50.8; bought calls; aligns with Nov20 call bullish view.
Unusual: 29.4 call 41 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 103.8, extreme; bought calls, bullish. 26.2 put 34 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol 20k vs OI 3.8k; likely protective puts; bearish hedge.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull call spread | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-07-02 $37.50/$41.00 call spread Why now: Low vol environment favors defined-risk debit plays; call flow confirms bullish sentiment. | Max loss if spot declines below long strike; limited upside if uncapped move occurs. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25. |
| Put credit spread | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-02 $32.50/$30.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread benefits from bullish bias and time decay; low vol supports selling premium. | Max loss if spot falls below short put strike; tail risk from China policy. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25. |
| Long call | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-07-02 $37.50 call Why now: Long call provides unlimited upside with limited downside; low vol environment favors cheap premium. | Time decay if spot moves sideways; may expire worthless if not above strike. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.