thetaOwl
HomeOptionsFXIReports

FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.52EOD only
Max Pain
$36.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.75
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+0.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
55
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias: spot below $36 max pain, bearish flow, negative gamma ($-141M GEX). VIX 17 suggests elevated risk but not extreme. Confidence 8/10.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 VIX 17. Bearish regime reinforces.
Supports: Bearish flow, below max pain, negative gamma, deep put OI at 32.
Conflicts: Positive market context (SPY +0.66%), VIX 17 not extreme.
📉Bearish flow: net premium negative, puts dominate.
🎯Max pain $36 pins spot; downside risk to 35 support.
🛡Deep put OI at 32 (126k contracts) provides strong floor.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Vol normal: VIX 17, IV consistent with recent range.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma trending: negative GEX (-$141M) suggests downside acceleration.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: put premium exceeds calls, net short premium.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below $36 max pain, magnet lower toward support at 35.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — May 29 expiry max pain pin drives near-term direction; combined with bearish flow and negative gamma.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$35.06$36.44
Pinned to $36 max pain; downside risk to 35 support.
Next 1 week
$34.74$36.76
Post-expiry drift lower; gamma flip ~$32.
Next 2 weeks
$34.47$37.03
Range 34.47-37.03; deep put OI at 32 limits downside, resistance at 37.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-05-29); $36 (2026-06-05); $34 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $35.06/$36.44; 1w $34.74/$36.76
Support: $35.00 · $34.47 · $34.00
Resistance: $36.50 · $37.03 · $38.00
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,420 (10.5% below spot)
Structural: Support: 35, 34.47, 34; Resistance: 36.5, 37, 38; Max pain $36 (May 29), $36 (Jun 5), $34 (Jun 12).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-141.1M

DEX: +129.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,420 (10.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$141.1M, DEX +129.1M shares; gamma flip ~$32 (deep put OI 126k at 10.5% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV likely elevated vs VIX 17% due to China risk; rich for hedges.

Term structure: Normal shape; no major event kinks, short-dated slightly elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no imminent vol arbitrage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium -$10.0M, put/call vol ratio 2.77, bearish.

Directional prints: 30.3 put 32 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2238 vs OI 541 (4.1x), aggressive put buying, bearish. 56.8 put 34 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 423 vs OI 242 (1.8x), moderate put buying, bearish.

Unusual: 30.3 put 32 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2238 vs OI 541 (4.1x), aggressive put buying, bearish. 56.8 put 34 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 423 vs OI 242 (1.8x), moderate put buying, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Stimulus disappointment from China.
!Yuan depreciation pressure.
!Geopolitical escalation.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00/$34.50 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bearish trade aligning with strong bearish bias and short duration.
Loss if FXI rallies above short put strike; max loss limited. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00 put
Why now: Buy put to profit from bearish momentum and high put volume.
Time decay if move is delayed; max loss is premium paid. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00/$34.50 put spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00/$34.50 put spread to profit from downside while capping risk.
Why this play: Defined-risk bearish trade with strong bearish bias and short duration, lower cost than long put.
Debit: $0.10-$0.12
Max loss: $0.12
BE: $34.88
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $36.5; close at 50% profit or hold to expiration for max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Traders with bearish view seeking controlled risk and short-term horizon.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00 put
Buy 2026-06-12 $35.00 put to capture strong bearish momentum and high put volume.
Why this play: Direct bearish bet with high payoff potential, but higher cost and risk than spread.
Debit: $0.30-$0.36
Max loss: $0.36
BE: $34.64
Mgmt: Monitor closely; set stop-loss at $0.15 premium or if spot rises above $36.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders comfortable with higher risk and potential for unlimited upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot drops to $35.00 → Enter FXI_01 bear put spread (buy 2026-06-12 $35.00/$34.50 put) at $0.10-$0.12
IFIF spot drops to $35.00 → Enter FXI_02 long put (buy 2026-06-12 $35.00 put) at $0.30-$0.36
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot rises to $36.50 or profit reaches 50% → Close FXI_01 bear put spread
EXITIF spot rises above $36.50 or put premium < $0.15 → Close FXI_02 long put

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, spot below $36 max pain, negative gamma. Support at $35, $34.47, $34. Invalidation above $36.5. Prefer FXI_01 bear put spread for defined risk. Duration: next 2 days to 1 week.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.