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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $36.28EOD only

Max Pain

$37.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.67

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+0.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias amid negative dealer gamma, bearish flow, and spot below max pain. Confidence 8/10, driven by strong GEX/flow alignment. Key risk: China stimulus could trigger short squeeze.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +0.5 spot 1.9% below MP, +0.5 VIX 18

Supports: Negative GEX, bearish flow, spot below max pain, VIX elevated
Conflicts: Strong support near $35.06 (1w low), potential China intervention

📉GEX -$43.6M: Dealers short gamma, amplifying moves down

⚖️Spot 1.9% below $36.5 max pain; pinning to $36-$37 likely

⚠️Gamma flip at $32 (11.8% drop) — low probability but high impact

🛡️Support cluster $35.06-$36.0; break opens $35

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol, VIX 18, slightly elevated vs historical but not extreme

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$43.6M, trending regime; gamma flip at ~$32, unlikely near-term

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow, net put premium suggests hedging/downside positioning

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $35.84 is 1.9% below $36.5 max pain; below MP biases toward pinning lower

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expirations (May22/May29/Jun5) create pinning dynamics; short-term structural

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$35.61$36.94

Test support $35.61; breach targets $35.06

Next 1 week

$35.28$37.27

Range $35.28-$37.27; trend favors lower end

Next 2 weeks

$35.06$37.50

Break below $35 opens $34; resistance $37.5

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-05-22); $36 (2026-05-29); $36 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 2d $35.61/$36.94; 1w $35.28/$37.27

Support: $36.00 · $35.06 · $35.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $37.50 · $38.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,321 (11.8% below spot)

Structural: Support: $36.0 (psychological), $35.06 (1w low), $35.0 (round). Resistance: $37 (max pain May22), $37.5 (2w high), $38.0. Gamma flip ~$32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-43.6M

DEX: +126.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,321 (11.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$43.6M (negative), DEX +126M shares (long delta neutral). Gamma flip at ~$32, based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV data not provided; based on VIX 18 and normal vol regime, IV likely in line, but cannot confirm.

Term structure: Term-structure data not provided; no event kinks observed in available data.

Skew: Skew data not available; no actionable opportunity identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$8.8M, put/call vol ratio 1.51 (bearish), OI ratio 0.89 (neutral). Bearish flow.

Directional prints: 26.3 put 35 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 10k vs OI 1.7k (ratio 5.9). If bought: bearish; if sold: bullish. Preferred: bought (bearish).

Unusual: 26.3 put 35 OTM 2026-12-18 — Unusual high vol/OI ratio 5.9 on put, likely new bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside from China stimulus announcements

!Short squeeze if spot rallies above $37 max pain

!Gamma reversal if dealers hedge delta near flip

!Macro risk from trade war escalation

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00/$34.50 put spread Why now: Bearish GEX/flow, negative dealer gamma, max pain below spot	Upside from China stimulus; max loss is debit paid Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (86%).
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $38.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: Bearish flow and negative gamma; defined risk protects against squeeze	Upside risk if squeeze; max loss is spread width minus credit Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (109%).
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00 put Why now: Bearish catalyst; defined loss if wrong	Theta decay; squeeze could cause loss Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00 put

Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00 put to profit from expected downside.

Why this play: Best risk/reward among bearish plays; defined loss and unlimited upside if spot declines further.

Debit: $0.51-$0.63

Max loss: $0.63

BE: $35.37

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% of premium; roll if spot approaches $37. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders with high conviction and tolerance for time decay.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00/$34.50 put spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00/$34.50 put spread to cap risk.

Why this play: Defined risk and lower cost than long put; still benefits from downside.

Debit: $0.36-$0.43

Max loss: $0.43

BE: $35.57

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $37; take profit at 75% of max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (86%).

Traders wanting defined risk with mild bearish view.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $38.00/$40.00 call spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $38.00/$40.00 call spread for defined risk downside.

Why this play: Least favorable due to low credit and high max loss; less effective for bearish thesis.

Credit: $0.17-$0.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $38.20

Mgmt: Buy back if spot rallies above $37; hold to expiry if below. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (109%).

Neutral-to-bearish traders with low conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot price drops below $36.00 support → Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00 put (FXI-LONG-PUT-1)

IFSpot price rallies to $37.00 resistance and fails to break → Buy 2026-06-12 $36.00/$34.50 bear put spread (FXI-BEAR-PUT-SPREAD-1)

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot price closes above $37.00 → Close all bearish positions (long put, bear put spread, call credit spread)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, confidence 8/10. Key support $36, resistance $37 (max pain). Invalidation above $37. Entry on breakdown below $36 or bounce failure at $37. Exit if spot closes above $37.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.