Home Options FXIReports

FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $36.36EOD only

Max Pain

$35.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-1.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bearish-to-trending bias with upside capped near $37; confidence base 6.5/10 — driven by large negative GEX (−$59.8M), bearish net premium flow (Net Premium $−6.6M) and rising max-pain ladder ($35 → $36 → $37). Biggest supports: GEX pin at $37 and concentrated put OI near $32 create asymmetric downside risk if gamma flip breached.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 from aligned negative GEX and bearish flow; −0.5 because spot is 3.6% above nearest MP ($35→$36) which can slow immediate downside.

Supports: GEX concentration +$67.8M at $37 (pin), put OI clusters at $36/$35/$34 creating structured support and dealer hedges, gamma flip ~ $32 as a hard downside accelerator.
Conflicts: Spot sits above current MP levels (MPs $35–$37) which can magnet price; IV term shows slight mid-tenor pick-up (14–42d) that muddies short-dated directional entry.

📉GEX −$59.8M implies dealer short gamma — moves will trend and accelerate away from strikes (gamma flip ~$32).

📌Max pain rising to $37 across expiries aligns with call OI wall and pinning pressure near $37.

💸Net premium negative $−6.6M and P/C vol 1.41 — institutional skew to puts (protective/selling), consistent with bearish flow.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV (avg 30.3%) with modest mid-term elevation (42d ATM 31.5%) — no extreme cheap/rich signal but slightly higher mid-tenor vol supports paid protection trades.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma (GEX −$59.8M) — dealers are short gamma; small moves are likely to trend, not mean-revert, increasing directional tail risk; gamma flip ~ $32 is the structural break point.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow bearish: Net Premium −$6.6M and P/C vol 1.41 indicate institutional put-buying/hedging pressure, reinforcing downside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $36.25 sits above nearby MPs ($35 on 4/10, $36 on 4/17, $37 on 4/24) — short-term magnet to $36–$37 but overall trend favored downside if sellers persist.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain and GEX trend persist across the next 2–4 expirations (MP rising to $37 over several expiries; negative GEX concentrated near spot across near-term expiries), favoring 30–45 DTE exposures.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$35.46$37.04

Immediate pin at $36/$37 likely narrows range; decisive break below $36.00 expands downside toward $34.95.

Next 2 weeks

$34.95$37.55

Close below $35.46 (1w EM floor) signals follow-through to $34.95; hold above $37.04 invalidates near-term bearishness.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-04-10); $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $35.46/$37.04

Support: $35.00 · $34.00 · $32.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $38.00 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 120,723 (11.7% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $40 (large structural cap); put floor cluster $32–$34 acts as structural support and gamma flip zone — breach triggers dealer de-gamma and acceleration lower.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-59.8M

DEX: +133.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 120,723 (11.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short dealer gamma concentrated at $37 (GEX +$67.8M pin but overall total GEX negative), meaning dealers will sell into rallies and fail to provide liquidity on declines; a −2% move (~$35.52) increases negative gamma hedge selling, widening moves; a +2% move (~$37.00) runs into call OI pinning and dealer call-sell hedging which caps upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV avg 30.3% — in line with normal; no major dislocation vs broad VIX (not provided) but mid-tenor 42d tick up to 31.5% = modest demand for protection.

Term structure: Slightly elevated mid-tenor: 7d 28.1% → 14d 30.4% → 42d 31.5%; 21–35d slightly lower (~26–27%), creating a small mid/near-term skew.</skew_or_opportunity>

Skew: Skewed put demand around 36/35/34; mispriced opportunity: buy 42d 37/34 bear-put spread (paying mid-tenor elevated vol) rather than very short-dated puts which show thin IV advantage; calendars have limited edge but a 42d fronted diagonal could capture mid-term skew.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net Premium −$6.6M (bearish net buying of puts); P/C volume 1.41 indicates active protective or directional put demand.

Directional prints: 23.6 put 36.5 ITM 4/17 — FXI260417P00036500: elevated flow (Vol 1,019 vs OI 190) — could be buys to open (protective) or early roll/sell; given overall P/C and net premium negative, buy-to-open protection is more consistent. 24.5 call 37.5 OTM 4/24 — FXI260424C00037500: 463 vol vs OI 111 — speculative call buying or short-cover; with dealers short gamma, modest buys may be met with hedging that dampens upside (interpretation ambiguous).

Unusual: 26.2 call 36.5 OTM 4/17 — FXI260417C00036500: heavy executed volume (5,893) into 2,304 OI — short-dated call flow vs put flow suggests two-way hedging but less dominant than put demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 — breach would remove dealer support and accelerate downside via forced hedging.

!Max-pain shifts and concentrated GEX at $37 may pin price and cause short-term choppy action, trapping bearish trades above $37.

!IV mid-tenor elevation (42d 31.5%) can make buying mid-dated protection more expensive; rapid VIX lift would hurt short-premium hedges.

!Macro shock or China/FXI-specific news would amplify dealer short-gamma losses and widen spreads.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $36.25	Trend favored downside; no convexity protection; best only if long-term bull case > structural risks.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short shares at market or synth short via options	Dealer short-gamma amplifies moves; requires active risk management around $37 pin.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell Apr24 $37.00 call	Upside capped at $37 pin; call OI wall may pin but limited upside if rally occurs.
Cash-secured put / put spread (short put spread)	Moderate-Weak	Sell Apr24 $35.00 put / buy Apr24 $32.00 put (defined risk)	Against trending negative GEX and concentrated put demand; downside acceleration to $32 hurts position.
Long call	Weak	Buy Apr24 $38.00 call (OTM)	Low edge: call OTM with dealers likely to sell into rallies; poor vol environment for cheap speculative calls.
Long put / bear put spread	Strong	Buy May22 (42d) 37.00 put, sell May22 34.00 put — 37/34 bear-put spread	Reversal into $37–$38 would lose premium; benefits from continued put demand and negative GEX trend.
Iron condor	Weak	Avoid near-term iron condors while GEX negative and trending	Short premium is punished by trending, negative-GEX regime; high probability of large directional moves.
Calendar/Diagonal (fronted diagonal)	Moderate	Sell May22 37.00 put / buy Apr24 37.00 put (sell higher IV leg per rule) — reverse calendar diagonal	Complex vega exposure; requires correct directional bias and roll management; mid-tenor IV elevation provides small edge.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + sell Jun30 (81d) 40.00 call (caps upside) — PMCC	Generates premium and lowers basis vs owning outright; but capped well below long-term structural call wall; best for holders needing income.

Top Plays

42d Bear Put Spread (core multi-week)

Buy May22 37/34 put spread

Defined-risk bearish exposure that aligns with negative GEX and institutional put demand; mid-tenor IV elevation is fair value for protection against a sustained down move.

Debit: $0.90-$1.50

Max loss: 3.00

BE: $36.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max gain; cut if spot > $38.00 or time decay erodes >50% premium with no move.

Traders wanting directional bearish exposure with defined risk and multi-week time to realize trend.

Near-term Apr24 Long Put (tactical)

Buy Apr24 36.50 put or Apr24 36.00 put depending on premium

Short-dated directional play capturing immediate put demand and potential expiry pin moves; cheap theta but benefits from fast downside move into pin levels.

Debit: $0.25-$0.60

Max loss: Premium paid

BE: $35.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 100% if move >1.5% within 3 sessions; cut at 50% loss or if spot ≥ $37.50.

Tactical traders expecting a near-term weakness or follow-through below $36.00.

Reverse Calendar Put Diagonal (vol capture)

Sell May22 37.00 put / buy Apr24 37.00 put (sell higher IV leg per rule)

Exploits mid-tenor IV pick-up (May22 ATM 31.5% > Apr24 30.4%) to collect premium while retaining front-month protection; works if path trends down slowly.

Credit: $0.10-$0.45

Max loss: Variable (depends on net debit/assignment)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close sell leg if spot < $35.00 or if front-month decays below expectation; roll sold leg wider if trade moves in your favor.

Experienced traders comfortable managing vega and calendar roll risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $37.00 and fails to close >$37.50 on 60-min basis → Sell May22 37/34 bear-put spread

IFIf spot drops and holds <$35.46 (1-week EM floor) for 2 sessions → Buy Apr24 36.50 put (tactical) or add to May22 37/34 spread

IFIf spot rises to $38.00 with call flow dampening (net premium still negative) → Initiate short-stock or covered-call (sell Apr24 $40.00 call) instead of outright long

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot < $34.95 (14d EM floor) and Apr24 short puts are assigned → Roll short puts down to May22 34.00 or convert to long 37/34 bear-put spread

ADJIf May22 37/34 spread reaches 60% of max profit → Take partial profits and tighten protection (buy Apr24 puts) to capture remaining downside with less capital at risk

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes > $38.50 on daily close → Exit all bearish option positions and short stock (invalidates bearish thesis)

EXITIf spot closes < $32.00 (approaching gamma flip) → Reduce size on directional shorts and hedge with long-dated puts (buy Jun30 32.00 or 34.00 puts)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: FXI trending lower over multi-week horizon with short-gamma dealers and institutional put demand — prefer defined-risk bearish plays (37/34 bear-put spread May22) and tactical short-dated puts for quick moves; invalidation > $38.50 daily close. Top plays: 42d 37/34 bear-put spread (multi-week), Apr24 36.5 put (tactical), reverse-calendar 37 put diagonal (vol capture for experienced traders).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.