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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.28EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.68
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.78
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 33d, IV moderate, 100% beat rate, but net put flow cautious.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Max pain $32 & call wall $38-$50 frame range.
📉Unusual put buying near $32.50 suggests hedging
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters
📈Call wall at $38-$50 may cap upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,929 (25.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$0.52 (1.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$1.77 (5.3%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$2.34 (7.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward: 1w ±1.6%, 2w ±5.3%, 3w ±7.0%

Crush estimate: ~70% post-event IV decay

Skew: Put skew elevated, max pain $32 pinning

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves near implied given 100% beat rate

Directional bias: Neutral-bullish

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $32.82/$33.86
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 2026-06-26 $32.50 put vol 637 vs OI 229

Short-term hedging into monthly expiry

Net put premium -$2.4M, PC OI ratio 1.29

Elevated put demand overall

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $31.00 put + sell $37.00 call
Credit: $1.57-$1.92
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.92
BE: 29.08 / 38.92
Trigger: Monitor IV; close if price breaches $32.5 support or $38 resistance.
Upward term structure and IV crush favor premium, with support and call wall allowing room.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to capture time decay and volatility crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $35.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $33.00 call
Debit: $1.70-$2.08
Max loss: $2.08
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if price drops below $32.5; adjust strikes as needed.
Neutral-bullish bias and upward IV curve allow directional tilt with volatility arbitrage.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call, buys later-term call to profit from upward IV skew and minor upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss risk despite history
!Volatility crush post-event
!Call cap at $38-$50 wall
!Market correlation with SPY/QQQ down

What to Watch

?Earnings 2026-07-29
?Max pain $32 pinning
?Support $32.5, resistance $35
?VIX at 18.4, market stress
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.