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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.80EOD only
Max Pain
$33.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.66
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.02
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG ahead of Jul earnings; high beat rate, mixed flow.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: 68 days to earnings; near-term IV moderate.
📊100% beat rate supports bullish historical bias
⚠️Put volume spike at $32.50 may indicate hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$27.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 61,563 (16.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (68 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$1.11 (3.4%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$1.91 (5.8%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$2.32 (7.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; 7d IV ~3.4%, 21d ~7%

Crush estimate: Unpriced near term; earnings effect negligible until late Jul

Skew: Put skew elevated at $32.50 put (33.5% IV)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available

Directional bias: Bullish based on 100% beat rate

Key Levels

1$27.50 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $31.78/$34.00
3Max pain pins: $33 (2026-05-22); $32 (2026-05-29); $33 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume in 5/29 $32.50 put (1666 vs 728 OI)

Hedging or bearish positioning near support

Long-dated call and put activity (Dec/Sept)

Speculative positioning on longer time frame

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $31.50 put + sell $34.50 call
Credit: $0.25-$0.30
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $0.30
BE: 31.20 / 34.80
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if $33 breaks.
Near-term IV moderate, upward term structure, max pain pinning, good liquidity.
Outperforms: Sell put/call credit; benefits from time decay and range-bound price.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $32.50/$30.50 put wing and $33.00/$35.00 call wing
Credit: $0.73-$0.90
Max loss: $1.10
Max gain: $0.90
BE: 31.60 / 33.90
Trigger: Monitor wings; exit at 50% max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (100%).; long_call: Wide spread (50%).
Moderate IV, upward term structure, defined risk wings, but lower liquidity.
Outperforms: Sell wings for credit; limited risk/return.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 68 days out reduces near-term catalyst pressure
!Max pain at $33 suggests pinning risk

What to Watch

?$32.50 put activity for directional signal
?Price action around $33 max pain
?Next week's IV crush if any
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.