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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.96EOD only
Max Pain
$33.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.89
2.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.04
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.01
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in ~29 days. IV is elevated (51%) with a clear term structure kink at the 5/01 expiration, confirming the 4/29 earnings date. The stock historically beats EPS estimates and has a trending gamma regime, suggesting a potential for a directional move. Best strategy is a short premium play, selling the elevated IV with defined risk.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 liquid symbol; +1 clear term structure kink; +0.5 consistent historical beat pattern
Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 (56.2% vs 41-42% nearby) confirms earnings date and sets up for significant crush.
📅Earnings date inferred as 4/29 from IV kink at 5/01 expiration. Confirm via company IR.
📊Historical EPS beat rate is 100%, but no price move data provided. Focus on IV setup.
⚡Gamma regime is 'Trending' (negative GEX). Be aware moves can be amplified, especially below $28.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 51%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-50.5M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-5.6M, P/C 0.75)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 3.0% (spot $32.01 vs MP $33)
Gamma flip: ~$28.00 — Below $28, negative GEX could amplify downward moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (29 days)inferred from IV term structure kink at 5/01 expiration

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$4.16 (13.0%) [$27.85 - $36.17]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 expiration (56.2% IV) vs 41-42% for surrounding expirations (4/24, 5/08).

Crush estimate: ~15 vol pts, back to ~41% post-earnings.

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 1.06 shows slightly more put open interest, but P/C volume of 0.75 shows more call trading recently.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data not provided for historical price moves vs expected move.

Directional bias: All four recent quarters showed positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$28 gamma flip (put OI concentration)
2$33 max pain (near-term)
3$27.5/$36.4 (Approx. EM bounds)
4$40 call OI wall

Flow Highlights

Large net put premium at $71 strike (-$2.4M). Likely a far OTM hedge or structured trade.

Not a near-term directional signal for earnings.

Unusual call volume in 4/10 $34C (1,427 vol vs 446 OI) and 4/24 $33C (633 vol vs 147 OI).

Possible bullish bets for a post-earnings move above $33-34.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush Play)
Sell $28.5 PUT / Buy $27.5 PUT x Sell $36.5 CALL / Buy $37.5 CALL, 5/01 expiration.
Credit: $0.45-$0.65
Max loss: $0.55
Max gain: $0.45
BE: $28.95 to $36.05
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (around 4/22-24).
Capitalizes on elevated IV at the earnings expiration. Strikes are placed just inside the EM bounds for a buffer, targeting a 45-65 credit for a 100-wide spread (~0.45-0.65% ROI).
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 5/01 expected move bounds ($27.85-$36.17) and IV crushes from 56% to ~41%.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside the short strikes ($28.5 or $36.5) at open post-earnings.
Bull Put Spread (Directional Bias)
Sell $30 PUT / Buy $28.5 PUT, 5/01 expiration.
Credit: $0.40-$0.60
Max loss: $1.10
Max gain: $0.40
BE: $29.60
Trigger: Enter on any dip to $31.50 or lower before earnings.
Leverages the historical pattern of positive EPS surprises and the current spot ($32.01) being above the short strike. Collects premium while defining risk. The $30 strike is a key level with high OI.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings, staying above $30.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $29.60 post-earnings.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion Bet)
Buy $32 straddle, 5/01 expiration.
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $27.85 / $36.17 (based on $4.16 EM)
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips below 50% into earnings, suggesting a potential re-expansion.
A lower-probability play given the high starting IV, but justified if one believes the 13% expected move is too low. The 100% historical beat rate suggests potential for a strong reaction to guidance.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 13% implied move (EM of $4.16).
Underperforms: Stock moves less than $4.16 and IV crushes sharply post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 13% expected move is significant. A move beyond the short strikes of an iron condor would result in max loss.
!IV crush: The primary profit driver for short premium strategies. If IV fails to drop significantly (e.g., due to market-wide vol spike), profits will be diminished.
!Liquidity: Symbol is liquid with 296 active strikes and 825k+ OI. Execution should be fine, but focus on strikes with OI > 1000.
!Sizing: Keep position size small (1-2% of portfolio risk) due to the binary nature of earnings events and the trending gamma regime which can amplify moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration as earnings approaches.
?Spot price action relative to the $33 max pain and $28 gamma flip levels.
?Any unusual flow in the 5/01 expiration strikes, particularly OTM puts given the high OI at $27.50 and $28.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.