Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/29 (23 days out). IV elevated (58% for 4/25-5/01), crush play viable given term structure kink. Historical beat rate 100% suggests upside bias, but negative GEX and pinning at $33 create downside risk. Best strategy: short strangle selling elevated IV, with risk of gap beyond EM.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 2026-05-01 (58.1% vs 42.3% pre) confirms earnings date ~4/29, offering crush opportunity.
📅Earnings inferred ~4/29 from IV kink at 5/01
⚠️Negative GEX -$40.5M increases downside volatility risk below $33
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 50.2%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$40.5M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$6.2M, P/C 0.83)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $33.50 vs max pain $33)
Gamma flip: ~$33.00 — Below $33, negative GEX amplifies downward moves; above, it dampens upward moves.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (23 days)inferred from IV term structure kink
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$2.32 (6.9%) [$31.18 - $35.82]
- 5/01 (25d): ±$4.05 (12.1%) [$29.45 - $37.55]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (58.1% vs 42.3% pre), elevated vs typical (avg IV 50.2%)
Crush estimate: ~15 vol pts, back to ~43% post-earnings
Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI 1.06), but flow mixed with net premium negative.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: No move data provided, but consistent EPS beats suggest potential for positive reaction.
Directional bias: All recent quarters beat EPS estimates, indicating upside bias.
Key Levels
1$33.00 max pain/gamma flip
2$35.00 call OI wall/GEX pin
3EM: $31.18-$35.82
Flow Highlights
Heavy $35.00C 4/10 buying (692 vol vs 6,171 OI, IV 43.6%)
Near-term upside bet, aligns with GEX pin magnet at $35.
Large put flow at $71.00 (net -$2.4M premium) and $53.40-$65.30 strikes
Likely hedging or speculative downside protection far OTM, not near-term impactful.
Strategies
Short strangle
Sell $30.00 PUT x $37.50 CALL 5/01
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if IV >55%
Sell elevated IV (58.1% for 5/01) with strikes outside EM guardrails ($29.45-$37.55), leveraging historical beat rate for pin near resistance.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $30-$37.50, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds significantly, especially below $30 given negative GEX.
Bull put spread
Sell $31.00 PUT x Buy $29.00 PUT 5/01
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $33 gamma flip
Defined-risk play on historical upside bias, with support at $31 put OI cluster and max pain $33.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $31, earnings beat continues.
Underperforms: Stock drops below $30.50, accelerated by negative GEX.
Long straddle
Buy $33.50 straddle 5/01
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >60%
Play for larger-than-expected move given high IV and consistent beats, but risky due to crush.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $29.45-$37.55).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $33.50, IV crushes post-earnings.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: EM 6.9% for 4/24, but negative GEX could amplify moves below $33 gamma flip.
!IV crush may be severe (~15 vol pts) if VIX normalizes post-earnings, hurting long premium.
!Liquidity sufficient (801,812 OI, 295 active strikes), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes.
!Size positions for max loss given elevated volatility and dealer positioning.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into 4/29
?Spot vs $33 gamma flip and max pain
?Unusual OTM call activity at $35+