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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.96EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.89

2.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CMG Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP

Watch next session: $33.00 put OI cluster (38,419); GEX pin magnet at $35.00; IV term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$6.2M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.83 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.06 — balanced with slight put bias

Net premium bearish despite moderate put volume dominance. Large negative GEX (-$40.5M) creates acceleration risk below $33, while put OI concentration at $33.00 creates a strong support magnet. Volatility term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration (58.1% IV) signals earnings-related positioning.

Notable Prints

CMG 2026-05-01 $35.00 Call

Vol: 1,831

OI: 628

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 56.7%

Notional: ~$254,509

Intent: Earnings-related speculation exploiting high IV

Dual read: Bought (bullish earnings bet) or sold (premium collection in high-IV environment)

Read-through: Elevated IV (56.7%) aligns with term structure inversion at May 1 expiration (58.1% ATM IV), suggesting concentrated earnings positioning ahead of 4/29 report

CMG 2026-04-10 $35.50 Call

Vol: 376

OI: 103

Vol/OI: 3.6x

IV: 42.6%

Notional: ~$26,320

Intent: Short-dated OTM speculation

Dual read: Bought (lottery ticket) or sold (covered call)

Read-through: Low delta (0.07) suggests low-conviction directional bet; IV (42.6%) is lower than May 1 spike, indicating less earnings influence

CMG 2026-12-18 $60.40 Put

Vol: 200

OI: 116

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 0.0%

Notional: ~$280,000

Intent: Deep ITM put for synthetic short or collar

Dual read: Bought (protective) or sold (cash-secured put)

Read-through: 0% IV indicates structured position, not volatility play; unrelated to near-term IV inversion

CMG 2026-09-18 $17.50 Put

Vol: 200

OI: 108

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 59.8%

Notional: ~$38,000

Intent: Far OTM put for tail hedge

Dual read: Bought (insurance) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: Extreme OTM (48% from spot) suggests portfolio protection; IV (59.8%) elevated but not part of near-term inversion

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow; some $35-$37.50 calls in May/June, with notable volume in May 1 $35.00 calls (1,831 volume) exploiting high IV

Put additions: Heavy $33.00 put OI (38,419) with $30.00 (13,784) and $32.50 (6,959) clusters

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — negative GEX (-$40.5M) aligns with put-heavy OI and bearish net premium

OI clusters: $33.00 put wall (38,419), $35.00 call cluster (6,171), $40-$50 call wall (structural)

Hedging evidence: Deep ITM $60.40 put and far OTM $17.50 put suggest portfolio hedging; May 1 high-IV calls may include earnings hedges or speculation

Max pain context: Near-term max pain at $33.00, spot at $33.50 drifting toward pin; May 1 expiration has max pain at $32.00, adding to downside pressure

Signal vs Noise

~$35.00 May call likely earnings speculation exploiting IV inversion (58.1% ATM IV vs. 42.3% at 4/24), not immediate directional

~Deep ITM $60.40 put is structured position, not spot directional

~Far OTM $17.50 put is tail hedge, not near-term directional

~IV term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration (58.1% IV) indicates earnings-driven volatility premium, not flow-driven directional signal

Key Conclusions

🐻Negative GEX (-$40.5M) creates acceleration risk below $33

📌$33.00 put OI wall (38,419) creates strong support magnet

💸Net premium bearish (-$6.2M) despite moderate put volume

📊Volatility term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 (58.1% IV) signals earnings positioning, creating arbitrage opportunity via reverse calendar spreads

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.