CMG Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 negative GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 spot below max pain; -0.5 mixed net premium

Watch next session: $33 Put OI (38.4K) for signs of selling pressure; Flow into $27.50-$28.00 Put OI cluster (67.9K OI)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$5.6M (slightly bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 0.75 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.06 — slight put lean in positioning

Flow is mixed but leans bearish, supported by negative Gamma Exposure (GEX) and spot trading below max pain. The positioning suggests a market expecting downside pressure, with large put OI clusters acting as potential magnets.

Notable Prints

CMG 4/10/26 $34 Call

Vol: 1,427

OI: 446

Vol/OI: 3.2x

IV: 40.7%

Notional: ~$48.5K

Intent: Directional upside bet or short-term hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/bearish, expecting cap near $34)

Read-through: Most significant near-term call flow. Given negative GEX and spot below strike, selling/writing is more likely, capping upside.

CMG 4/24/26 $33 Call

Vol: 633

OI: 147

Vol/OI: 4.3x

IV: 44.2%

Notional: ~$20.9K

Intent: Roll from nearer-dated calls or speculative upside bet

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral, targeting max pain at $33)

Read-through: Strike aligns with near-term max pain. Flow could be sellers targeting that level, reinforcing a resistance zone.

CMG 4/2/26 $32.50 Put

Vol: 247

OI: 113

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 24.4%

Notional: ~$8.0K

Intent: Near-term directional hedge or speculative downside bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish, targeting move below $32.50) or sold (bullish, expecting hold above)

Read-through: Low IV suggests likely buying for cheap protection. Supports the bearish near-term flow thesis.

CMG 4/17/26 $20 Call

Vol: 382

OI: 200

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 128.9%

Notional: ~$7.6K

Intent: Lottery ticket or part of a complex spread (e.g., call butterfly)

Dual read: Bought (speculative long-shot) or sold (as part of a defined-risk structure)

Read-through: Extremely high IV and deep OTM nature make this noise for directional analysis. Likely a cheap speculative bet or spread leg.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Some activity in $33-$34 calls (Apr expiries), but size is not large.

Put additions: Major OI clusters at $27.50 (35.7K), $28.00 (32.2K), and $33.00 (38.4K) puts. This is the dominant positioning feature.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — strongly consistent. Negative GEX (-$50.5M) aligns with heavy put OI, creating pro-cyclical (trending) dynamics that can amplify moves lower.

OI clusters: Major Put Walls: $33 (38.4K OI), $27.50-$28.00 (67.9K OI combined). Major Call Wall: $40 (20.6K OI). Clusters create strong magnets, with $33 as near-term resistance and $27.50-$28 as a major support target.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The massive OI in $27.50-$28.00 puts, well below spot, suggests large-scale, longer-dated protective positioning or put spreads. The $33 put OI could be nearer-term hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($32.01) is below near-term max pain ($33). This creates a gravitational pull higher towards $33, but negative GEX and put OI may resist that move.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM calls ($20 strike, 128.9% IV): Lottery ticket flow, not a meaningful directional signal.

~Premium flow at extreme strikes ($71, $3125, etc.): Likely data artifacts, box spreads, or synthetic positions. Ignore for directional analysis.

~IV spike in May 1st expiry (56.2%): Likely due to proximity to estimated earnings (Apr 29). Flow here may be earnings-related hedging, not pure directional.

~The $60.40 Put for Dec 2026: Volume of 200 with 0% IV is likely a data error or a very illiquid strike adjustment. Disregard.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Negative GEX (-$50.5M) creates a pro-cyclical, trending regime that can amplify downward moves.

🧲Heavy put OI clusters at $33 and $27.50-$28.00 act as strong price magnets, defining resistance and potential support.

📉Spot below max pain with a put-leaning P/C ratio suggests underlying bearish pressure despite the max pain pull higher.

🎯Watch the Gamma Flip estimate (~$28). A break below could accelerate selling due to negative gamma exposure.

Read the Flow analysis for CMG for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.