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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.96EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.89

2.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CMG Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 negative GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 spot below max pain; -0.5 mixed net premium

Watch next session: $33 Put OI (38.4K) for signs of selling pressure; Flow into $27.50-$28.00 Put OI cluster (67.9K OI)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$5.6M (slightly bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 0.75 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.06 — slight put lean in positioning

Flow is mixed but leans bearish, supported by negative Gamma Exposure (GEX) and spot trading below max pain. The positioning suggests a market expecting downside pressure, with large put OI clusters acting as potential magnets.

Notable Prints

CMG 4/10/26 $34 Call

Vol: 1,427

OI: 446

Vol/OI: 3.2x

IV: 40.7%

Notional: ~$48.5K

Intent: Directional upside bet or short-term hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/bearish, expecting cap near $34)

Read-through: Most significant near-term call flow. Given negative GEX and spot below strike, selling/writing is more likely, capping upside.

CMG 4/24/26 $33 Call

Vol: 633

OI: 147

Vol/OI: 4.3x

IV: 44.2%

Notional: ~$20.9K

Intent: Roll from nearer-dated calls or speculative upside bet

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral, targeting max pain at $33)

Read-through: Strike aligns with near-term max pain. Flow could be sellers targeting that level, reinforcing a resistance zone.

CMG 4/2/26 $32.50 Put

Vol: 247

OI: 113

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 24.4%

Notional: ~$8.0K

Intent: Near-term directional hedge or speculative downside bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish, targeting move below $32.50) or sold (bullish, expecting hold above)

Read-through: Low IV suggests likely buying for cheap protection. Supports the bearish near-term flow thesis.

CMG 4/17/26 $20 Call

Vol: 382

OI: 200

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 128.9%

Notional: ~$7.6K

Intent: Lottery ticket or part of a complex spread (e.g., call butterfly)

Dual read: Bought (speculative long-shot) or sold (as part of a defined-risk structure)

Read-through: Extremely high IV and deep OTM nature make this noise for directional analysis. Likely a cheap speculative bet or spread leg.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Some activity in $33-$34 calls (Apr expiries), but size is not large.

Put additions: Major OI clusters at $27.50 (35.7K), $28.00 (32.2K), and $33.00 (38.4K) puts. This is the dominant positioning feature.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — strongly consistent. Negative GEX (-$50.5M) aligns with heavy put OI, creating pro-cyclical (trending) dynamics that can amplify moves lower.

OI clusters: Major Put Walls: $33 (38.4K OI), $27.50-$28.00 (67.9K OI combined). Major Call Wall: $40 (20.6K OI). Clusters create strong magnets, with $33 as near-term resistance and $27.50-$28 as a major support target.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The massive OI in $27.50-$28.00 puts, well below spot, suggests large-scale, longer-dated protective positioning or put spreads. The $33 put OI could be nearer-term hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($32.01) is below near-term max pain ($33). This creates a gravitational pull higher towards $33, but negative GEX and put OI may resist that move.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM calls ($20 strike, 128.9% IV): Lottery ticket flow, not a meaningful directional signal.

~Premium flow at extreme strikes ($71, $3125, etc.): Likely data artifacts, box spreads, or synthetic positions. Ignore for directional analysis.

~IV spike in May 1st expiry (56.2%): Likely due to proximity to estimated earnings (Apr 29). Flow here may be earnings-related hedging, not pure directional.

~The $60.40 Put for Dec 2026: Volume of 200 with 0% IV is likely a data error or a very illiquid strike adjustment. Disregard.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Negative GEX (-$50.5M) creates a pro-cyclical, trending regime that can amplify downward moves.

🧲Heavy put OI clusters at $33 and $27.50-$28.00 act as strong price magnets, defining resistance and potential support.

📉Spot below max pain with a put-leaning P/C ratio suggests underlying bearish pressure despite the max pain pull higher.

🎯Watch the Gamma Flip estimate (~$28). A break below could accelerate selling due to negative gamma exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.