CMG Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP

Watch next session: $33.00 put OI cluster (38,419); GEX pin magnet at $35.00; IV term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$6.2M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.83 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.06 — balanced with slight put bias

Net premium bearish despite moderate put volume dominance. Large negative GEX (-$40.5M) creates acceleration risk below $33, while put OI concentration at $33.00 creates a strong support magnet. Volatility term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration (58.1% IV) signals earnings-related positioning.

Notable Prints

CMG 2026-05-01 $35.00 Call

Vol: 1,831

OI: 628

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 56.7%

Notional: ~$254,509

Intent: Earnings-related speculation exploiting high IV

Dual read: Bought (bullish earnings bet) or sold (premium collection in high-IV environment)

Read-through: Elevated IV (56.7%) aligns with term structure inversion at May 1 expiration (58.1% ATM IV), suggesting concentrated earnings positioning ahead of 4/29 report

CMG 2026-04-10 $35.50 Call

Vol: 376

OI: 103

Vol/OI: 3.6x

IV: 42.6%

Notional: ~$26,320

Intent: Short-dated OTM speculation

Dual read: Bought (lottery ticket) or sold (covered call)

Read-through: Low delta (0.07) suggests low-conviction directional bet; IV (42.6%) is lower than May 1 spike, indicating less earnings influence

CMG 2026-12-18 $60.40 Put

Vol: 200

OI: 116

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 0.0%

Notional: ~$280,000

Intent: Deep ITM put for synthetic short or collar

Dual read: Bought (protective) or sold (cash-secured put)

Read-through: 0% IV indicates structured position, not volatility play; unrelated to near-term IV inversion

CMG 2026-09-18 $17.50 Put

Vol: 200

OI: 108

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 59.8%

Notional: ~$38,000

Intent: Far OTM put for tail hedge

Dual read: Bought (insurance) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: Extreme OTM (48% from spot) suggests portfolio protection; IV (59.8%) elevated but not part of near-term inversion

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow; some $35-$37.50 calls in May/June, with notable volume in May 1 $35.00 calls (1,831 volume) exploiting high IV

Put additions: Heavy $33.00 put OI (38,419) with $30.00 (13,784) and $32.50 (6,959) clusters

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — negative GEX (-$40.5M) aligns with put-heavy OI and bearish net premium

OI clusters: $33.00 put wall (38,419), $35.00 call cluster (6,171), $40-$50 call wall (structural)

Hedging evidence: Deep ITM $60.40 put and far OTM $17.50 put suggest portfolio hedging; May 1 high-IV calls may include earnings hedges or speculation

Max pain context: Near-term max pain at $33.00, spot at $33.50 drifting toward pin; May 1 expiration has max pain at $32.00, adding to downside pressure

Signal vs Noise

~$35.00 May call likely earnings speculation exploiting IV inversion (58.1% ATM IV vs. 42.3% at 4/24), not immediate directional

~Deep ITM $60.40 put is structured position, not spot directional

~Far OTM $17.50 put is tail hedge, not near-term directional

~IV term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 expiration (58.1% IV) indicates earnings-driven volatility premium, not flow-driven directional signal

Key Conclusions

🐻Negative GEX (-$40.5M) creates acceleration risk below $33

📌$33.00 put OI wall (38,419) creates strong support magnet

💸Net premium bearish (-$6.2M) despite moderate put volume

📊Volatility term structure inversion at 2026-05-01 (58.1% IV) signals earnings positioning, creating arbitrage opportunity via reverse calendar spreads

Read the Flow analysis for CMG for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.