CMG Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 negative GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 spot at max pain resistance; -0.5 mixed net premium; +0.5 large protective put OI

Watch next session: $33.00 Put OI (38.4K) for signs of selling pressure; Flow into $34-$35 calls for a breakout attempt

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$6.4M (slightly bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 0.80 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.07 — slight put lean in positioning

Flow remains mixed with a bearish tilt, anchored by persistent negative GEX and massive put OI at $33. The market is positioned for resistance at $33-$34, with a clear support target near $27.50-$28.00. Spot at max pain creates a standoff.

Notable Prints

CMG 4/24/26 $34 Put

Vol: 720

OI: 124

Vol/OI: 5.8x

IV: 36.9%

Notional: ~$23.9K

Intent: Directional hedge or speculative downside bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish, expecting a move below $34 by late April) or sold (bullish, expecting a hold above $34)

Read-through: This is a near-term, at-the-money put purchase. Given the negative GEX and spot pinned at max pain, buying downside protection is the more likely intent, reinforcing the $33-$34 resistance zone.

CMG 12/18/26 $35.60 Call

Vol: 600

OI: 110

Vol/OI: 5.5x

IV: 50.4%

Notional: ~$19.9K

Intent: Long-dated directional call buying

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout over time) or sold as part of a covered call/ratio spread

Read-through: This is a longer-term, slightly OTM call. The elevated IV (~50%) and significant volume relative to OI suggest fresh buying. This could be a strategic, longer-term bullish bet, acknowledging near-term resistance but targeting a breakout into year-end.

CMG 4/10/26 $34.50 Call

Vol: 487

OI: 138

Vol/OI: 3.5x

IV: 36.7%

Notional: ~$16.9K

Intent: Short-term directional upside bet or hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/bearish, capping upside near $34.50)

Read-through: This is a near-term, OTM call. With spot at $33.16 and negative GEX, selling calls to collect premium is a plausible institutional play. This flow likely represents a cap on near-term upside, aligning with the resistance narrative.

CMG 4/17/26 $34 Put

Vol: 720

OI: 254

Vol/OI: 2.8x

IV: 40.5%

Notional: ~$24.5K

Intent: Directional hedge or speculative downside bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish)

Read-through: Similar to the 4/24 $34P, this reinforces the $34 area as a key resistance/hedge level for mid-April. The clustering of put activity at $34 across multiple expiries is notable.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term. Some longer-dated call interest at $35.60 (Dec 2026) and OTM strikes like $40, $45, $50.

Put additions: Dominant feature remains the massive OI clusters at $33 (38.4K), $27.50 (35.7K), and $28 (32.2K). New flow adds to the $34 put wall across April expiries.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — strongly consistent. Negative GEX (-$40.6M) aligns with heavy put OI, creating a pro-cyclical (trending) regime that can amplify moves away from the $33 Gamma Flip point.

OI clusters: Major Put Walls: $33 (38.4K OI), $27.50-$28.00 (67.9K OI combined), $34 (growing across April). Major Call Wall: $40 (20.6K OI). The $33 put wall is the primary near-term magnet/resistance.

Hedging evidence: Yes, overwhelming. The enormous OI in $27.50-$28.00 puts, far below spot, is a clear sign of large-scale, longer-dated protective positioning. The $33 and new $34 put flow represents nearer-term hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($33.16) is exactly at the near-term max pain ($33). This creates a gravitational pin, but the negative GEX and massive put OI at this level suggest any break below could be swift.

Signal vs Noise

~The $60.40 Put for Dec 2026 (Vol 200, IV 0.0%): This is a data error or a very illiquid strike adjustment. Disregard entirely.

~Premium flow at extreme strikes ($71, $3125, $3130, etc.): These are almost certainly data artifacts, box spreads, or synthetic positions for financing. They represent zero directional intent for CMG's underlying price.

~IV spike in May 1st expiry (54.0%): Likely due to proximity to estimated earnings (Apr 29). Flow in this expiry may be earnings-related volatility positioning, not pure directional bets.

Key Conclusions

⚖️Spot is pinned at the $33 max pain/Gamma Flip, creating a standoff between pinning forces and negative GEX.

🛡️Massive protective put OI at $27.50-$28.00 defines a major support target, while $33-$34 acts as layered resistance.

📉Negative GEX (-$40.6M) creates a pro-cyclical regime; a break below $33 could accelerate selling.

📅Long-dated call buying (Dec $35.60C) suggests some strategic bullish bets are being placed for a breakout later in the year.

Read the Flow analysis for CMG for 2026-04-02. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.