Earnings Verdict
Bearish flow into earnings with heavy put buying despite 100% beat rate.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual put activity in June 18 expirations at strikes far above spot suggests aggressive downside bets.
⚠️Unusual put prints: 5623 contracts of June 18 $40 put (OI 1701, vol/OI 3.3).
📊100% historical beat rate but current flow is contradictory.
📉Put/call volume ratio 1.94:1, heavy put dominance.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,942 (21.5% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (42 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$0.61 (1.9%)
- 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$1.45 (4.5%)
- 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$1.85 (5.8%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Flat near-term, slightly elevated 1d IV (1.9% move).
Crush estimate: Expected post-earnings IV crush ~50%.
Skew: Put skew elevated with heavy OTM put buying; bearish sentiment.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate over 5 quarters; avg move magnitude not provided.
Directional bias: Bullish bias historically, but current flow suggests caution.
Key Levels
1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $31.25/$32.47; 1w $30.42/$33.31
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)
Flow Highlights
Large put buying in June 18 expiration at strikes $37.20-$48, all OTM, volume/OI ratio >1.5.
Market pricing significant downside risk ahead of earnings.
Net premium negative $15.2M; put/call volume ratio 1.94.
Dominant bearish flow.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Break below $30 support could accelerate downside to $25 put wall.
!Resistance at $32.4 and $35; call open interest wall at $35-$45.
!Bearish market backdrop (SPY -1.25%, QQQ -1.01%) amplifies risk.
What to Watch
?Price action at $30 support and $32.4 resistance.
?Continued put activity in weekly expirations.
?Any shift in flow ahead of earnings.