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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $37.22EOD only
Max Pain
$34.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.55
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-3.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Bearish flow into earnings with heavy put buying despite 100% beat rate.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual put activity in June 18 expirations at strikes far above spot suggests aggressive downside bets.
⚠️Unusual put prints: 5623 contracts of June 18 $40 put (OI 1701, vol/OI 3.3).
📊100% historical beat rate but current flow is contradictory.
📉Put/call volume ratio 1.94:1, heavy put dominance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,942 (21.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$0.61 (1.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$1.45 (4.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$1.85 (5.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Flat near-term, slightly elevated 1d IV (1.9% move).

Crush estimate: Expected post-earnings IV crush ~50%.

Skew: Put skew elevated with heavy OTM put buying; bearish sentiment.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate over 5 quarters; avg move magnitude not provided.

Directional bias: Bullish bias historically, but current flow suggests caution.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $31.25/$32.47; 1w $30.42/$33.31
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large put buying in June 18 expiration at strikes $37.20-$48, all OTM, volume/OI ratio >1.5.

Market pricing significant downside risk ahead of earnings.

Net premium negative $15.2M; put/call volume ratio 1.94.

Dominant bearish flow.

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Break below $30 support could accelerate downside to $25 put wall.
!Resistance at $32.4 and $35; call open interest wall at $35-$45.
!Bearish market backdrop (SPY -1.25%, QQQ -1.01%) amplifies risk.

What to Watch

?Price action at $30 support and $32.4 resistance.
?Continued put activity in weekly expirations.
?Any shift in flow ahead of earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.