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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $31.69EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.80

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

CMG Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG earnings 7/29; 100% beat rate but bearish flow and put-heavy OI. IV moderate.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19

Most important: 100% beat vs bearish flow; watch IV crush and $33 resistance.

⚠️Divergence: 100% beat rate vs net bearish flow.

📈Unusual call activity in July 31 $33 strike (5.6x).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Mixed

Spot vs MP

Above

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,934 (22.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

2026-06-26 (1d): ±$0.68 (2.1%)
2026-07-02 (7d): ±$1.34 (4.2%)
2026-07-10 (15d): ±$1.88 (5.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-loaded; 1d ±2.1%, 7d ±4.2%, 15d ±5.8%.

Crush estimate: Moderate, ~30-40% post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put/call OI 1.3.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate (5/5); actual moves vs expected not given.

Directional bias: Neutral; historical beats suggest upside bias.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip

2EM guardrails: 2d $31.60/$32.95; 1w $30.94/$33.62

3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

July 31 $33 Call vol 1013 vs OI 180 (5.6x).

Speculative bullish positioning ahead of earnings.

July 2 $33 Call vol 2895 vs OI 1059 (2.7x).

Near-term aggressive call buying.

Strategies

Iron Condor Neutral

Sell 2026-07-17 $32.50/$30.00 put wing and $35.00/$37.50 call wing

Credit: $1.01-$1.24

Max loss: $1.26

Max gain: $1.24

BE: 31.26 / 36.24

Trigger: Take profit at 50% max; adjust wings to 31/37 if breached.

Neutral bias matches bearish flow; limited risk, theta decay, moderate IV.

Outperforms: Defined-risk earnings play capturing theta with wings.

Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Call Diagonal Bullish

Sell 2026-07-02 $33.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $35.00 call

Debit: $0.84-$1.02

Max loss: $1.02

Max gain: Variable

BE: Path-dependent

Trigger: Exit if price touches $31.5 invalidation.

100% beat rate suggests upside; front-loaded term structure favors back-month vol.

Outperforms: Bullish diagonal profits from vol flattening and upward drift.

Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Long Strangle Volatility

Buy 2026-07-31 $31.00 put + buy $33.00 call

Debit: $2.58-$3.16

Max loss: $3.16

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: 27.84 / 36.16

Trigger: Manage with IV-based stop losses; exit within 1-2 days post-earnings.

Beat rate vs bearish flow creates binary risk; moderate IV leaves room for surprise.

Outperforms: Non-directional volatility play on large move.

Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Long straddle

Buy 2026-09-18 $32.50 put + buy $32.50 call

Debit: $4.72-$5.77

Max loss: $5.77

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: 26.73 / 38.27

Longer duration reduces crush risk; historical beats favor continued move.

Outperforms: At-the-money straddle on Sep expiration for sustained volatility.

Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Net negative premium -$3.5M suggests hedging or bearish sentiment.

!Put OI ratio 1.3 indicates downside protection walls.

!Gamma pinning near $32-$31 may cap moves.

What to Watch

?Earnings guidance and comparable sales.

?IV crush magnitude post-event.

?Break of $33 resistance or $31 support.

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.