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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $30.54EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.16
3.8% from close
Price Gap
+0.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG earnings 7/29; bearish flow vs 100% beat rate; IV elevated; key levels $30-$31.5.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Bearish put flow and below max pain suggest downside risk, but historical beat rate perfect.
📉Put/call volume ratio 2.32; net premium -$5.4M.
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters.
⚠️Spot below max pain $31; bearish gamma.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,939 (19.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$0.96 (3.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$1.51 (4.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$1.99 (6.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated; backwardated.

Crush estimate: Expected 30-40% post-event crush.

Skew: Put-skewed; bearish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 100%; typical move ~3-6%.

Directional bias: Mixed; bearish flow vs 100% beat rate.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.00/$31.91; 1w $29.44/$32.47
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying at 7/2 $29.5, 8/21 $30, and deep OTM $60.4 puts.

Bearish positioning; hedge against downside.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $32.00/$33.00 call wing
Credit: $1.03-$1.26
Max loss: $0.74
Max gain: $1.26
BE: 28.74 / 33.26
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or before earnings if IV expands.
Best for mixed outlook: elevated IV and historical beat rate vs bearish flow.
Outperforms: Sells premium to capture IV crush, wings cap tail risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00 put
Debit: $0.97-$1.19
Max loss: $1.19
Max gain: $27.81
BE: $27.81
Trigger: Set stop loss at $31.5; consider scaling out at $30.
Direct play on bearish flow and below max pain, but risk of beat.
Outperforms: Buys put option to profit from downside move.
Underperforms: Break above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $28.00 put + buy $33.00 call
Debit: $1.78-$2.17
Max loss: $2.17
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 25.83 / 35.17
Trigger: Exit before earnings or use trailing stop after move.
Captures large move if earnings surprise, but expensive due to high IV.
Outperforms: Buys both put and call to profit from volatility.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Downside risk from bearish flow and below max pain.
!Upside risk from 100% historical beat rate.
!Gamma flip at $25 could accelerate selloff.

What to Watch

?Earnings on 7/29.
?Support $30 and resistance $31.5.
?IV crush magnitude.
?Reversal in put volume before event.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.