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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.49EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
4.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.05
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG earnings 37 days out; 100% beat rate supports bullish bias. Elevated IV offers premium for short-vol strategies, but put OI dominance hints at hedging. Confidence base 7.5.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: 100% beat rate and active call sweeps suggest bullish expectations; but 1.26 put/call OI ratio warns of significant protective positioning.
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters
🔥Unusual call sweeps on Jul2 $32 and Jul10 $31
⚠️Put/call OI ratio 1.26 shows heavy put protection

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,928 (18.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$1.15 (3.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$1.62 (5.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$2.10 (6.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated: near-term IV (Jun26 43.3%) > far-term (Jul10 37-39%)

Crush estimate: Moderate crush ~40-50% post-earnings, implied move ~6.9% by Jul10

Skew: Slight put skew with put OI dominance; near-term calls actively traded.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not specified; 100% beat rate implies possible upside beyond implied moves.

Directional bias: Bullish based on consistent earnings beats.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $28.92/$32.17
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

High vol/oi ratio on Jul2 $32 Call (831 vol, 281 OI) and Jul10 $31 Call (668 vol, 137 OI) suggests fresh bullish positioning.

Traders anticipating upside above $32, possibly hedging earnings positive.

Unusual put activity on Jul17 $40 Put (404 vol, 267 OI) with 71.8% IV.

Tail-risk hedge or speculative bearish bet given high IV; however strike far OTM.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $32.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $32.00 call
Debit: $0.94-$1.15
Max loss: $1.15
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short leg near expiration if bullish; exit if spot breaks below $30.
Captures backwardated term structure and elevated near-term IV while maintaining bullish exposure on 100% beat rate.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call to collect premium, buy back-month call for upside. Edge: volatility skew and directional drift.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $34.00/$36.00 call spread
Debit: $0.30-$0.36
Max loss: $0.36
Max gain: $1.64
BE: $34.36
Trigger: Hold through earnings; take profit if spot reaches $36 early.
Low cost, defined risk, and strong earnings history make it a clear alternative to unlimited-risk long call.
Outperforms: Buy $34/$36 call spread to profit from moderate upside with limited capital at risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-31 $34.00 call
Debit: $0.70-$0.85
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $34.85
Trigger: Set stop at $30 or consider rolling on IV crush if spot remains flat.
Unlimited upside potential on consistent earnings beat history, though higher premium than spread.
Outperforms: Buy $34 call for pure directional bet with unlimited gain and limited loss to $0.85.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $28.00/$27.00 put wing and $36.00/$39.00 call wing
Credit: $0.46-$0.56
Max loss: $2.44
Max gain: $0.56
BE: 27.44 / 36.56
Elevated IV and moderate crush estimate support selling premium; bullish bias tightens call side.
Outperforms: Post-earnings IV crush harvest with bullish skew.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings gap risk: 37 days until event, IV elevated.
!Gamma flip level at $25: if spot drops below, delta hedging could amplify downside.
!Market correlation: SPY/QQQ slightly down, but CMG is stock-specific.

What to Watch

?Resistance at $31.5: call activity near term suggests potential breakout.
?Support at $30: put floor accumulation may hold.
?Jul10 $31 straddle: watch volume and IV for earnings positioning.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.