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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.23EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.25
3.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG earnings 47d away. Defensive put buying despite 100% beat rate. Gamma pinning $30-$32 supports. Neutral-leaning cautious.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: 100% beat rate but heavy puts suggest hedging, not conviction.
⚠️Deep OTM puts 6/18 $37-$48 signal defensive hedging.
🔼Call wall $35-$45 caps upside; $33 call accumulation bullish.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 144,010 (22.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (47 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$1.25 (3.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$1.95 (6.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$2.20 (6.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term implied moves expand normally.

Crush estimate: Crush ~30-40% post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated below spot.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A; 100% beat rate historically.

Directional bias: Neutral

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $30.98/$33.48
3Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-12); $32 (2026-06-18); $31 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Large 6/18 $40 put volume (5136 vs 1708 OI).

Downside hedging.

Unusual 7/10 $33 call volume (4685 vs 193 OI).

Bullish call opening.

Strategies

Long Straddle
Buy 2026-06-18 $32.40 put + buy $32.40 call
Debit: $1.12-$1.38
Max loss: $1.38
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 31.02 / 33.78
Trigger: Exit before earnings or at target profit; stop loss at premium decay.
Captures large implied move regardless of direction; neutral bias suits straddle.
Outperforms: Buys put and call at $32.40 to profit from big move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-06-18 $31.50 put + buy $33.00 call
Debit: $0.55-$0.68
Max loss: $0.68
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 30.82 / 33.68
Trigger: Close if stock stays between strikes; let run if breakout occurs.
Cheaper than straddle, benefits from extreme moves; 100% beat rate supports upside.
Outperforms: Buys $31.50 put and $33.00 call for cheaper volatility exposure.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 7% above max pain; gamma pull lower.
!Put floor $25-$28.
!Call cap $35-$45.

What to Watch

?Max pain $30/$32.
?Unusual $40 put activity.
?VIX at 18.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.